John Bennett: no ordinary cycle in Europe

05/09/2016

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​Do European equities offer value?

I’ve always been wary of the value versus growth thing. I think these are convenient labels. Value is in the eye of the beholder. For me, value is about the price you pay for cash flow. What I would say about value is that the old definition of value and growth no longer applies, because this is no ordinary cycle. This has not been an ordinary cycle since the financial crisis. It cannot be an ordinary cycle because of the debt mountain that built up. We are still dealing with the threat of debt deflation – that is really what central bankers are fighting. In the old days of buying value, you might have looked at cement, banks, steel, cars or aluminium – traditional value sectors. This is not a good idea now, because of deflationary risks, and because of central banks’ response to deflationary risks, namely the QE experiment. You have overcapacity in so many industries that you used to call value. Until we get a change in the inflation dynamic, this probably won’t change.

Are European banks rightly unloved?

Banks have been the poster children of the value trap. Value is never in a ratio. Fund managers have become inured to the many calls from strategists on the sell side who have suggested that it is time to buy the banks. It has been a spectacularly wrong since 2008 because the banking model has been severely disrupted, if not broken, by QE.

What are your post-Brexit concerns for Europe?

I have been less worried about the FTSE 100 and the UK economy than the European periphery in the immediate aftermath of Brexit; because of course Britain flexed its currency, devaluing sterling significantly. I worried about the effects of that more on the European periphery, an already fairly uncompetitive area, where the euro has arguably been too strong since it was launched. The euro in my view has been too weak for Germany and too strong for everyone else. I thought it was wrong that people were panicking on UK house builders, for example. I haven’t said ‘panic about the periphery’, rather ‘worry about the periphery’. I think it’s a patient that is still healing. Recent GDP numbers from Italy hasn’t been that good, which threatens Italian Prime Minster Matteo Renzi in the upcoming referendum – yet another noisy political event in Europe. I doubt I’ll ever stop worrying about the economies in the periphery.

How is the healthcare sector performing?

Pharma hasn’t really participated in the defensives rally. At best pharma has been dull; in some cases worse than dull. I went into 2016 thinking that this was a year for stocks, not markets. I was trying to say I’m not convinced that this would be an ‘up’ year for market indices. So far, unless you have been based in sterling, you haven’t had an up year in European equities. I would extend that to say even stocks not sectors (from stocks not markets). So, we have nuanced our pharmaceuticals view to say it is not just so much about buying the whole sector. You are now seeing clear stock dispersion within pharma, with pricing pressure in some clinical areas in the US. Look at the news from Sanofi on its diabetes insulin product. And look at the news from Novo Nordisk. Yes; pricing is beginning to be a problem in the US – a headwind for some pharmaceutical companies, but not all. Where I take an issue with the ‘one size fits all’ approach was that, if you have innovative medicine meeting unmet clinical needs, you will have pricing power. This is why our names are big names in pharma like Roche and Novartis, and also Fresenius in healthcare. I think stock dispersion is back, even within sectors.

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

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Important information

Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.

Janus Henderson Continental European Fund

This document is intended solely for the use of professionals and is not for general public distribution.

The Janus Henderson Fund (the ""Fund"") is a Luxembourg SICAV incorporated on 26 September 2000, managed by Henderson Management S.A. Any investment application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the Fund’s prospectus (including all relevant covering documents), which will contain investment restrictions. This document is intended as a summary only and potential investors must read the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document before investing. A copy of the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document can be obtained from Henderson Global Investors Limited in its capacity as Investment Manager and Distributor.

Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus Capital International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier).

Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The performance data does not take into account the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. If you invest through a third party provider you are advised to consult them directly as charges, performance and terms and conditions may differ materially.

The Fund is a recognised collective investment scheme for the purpose of promotion into the United Kingdom. Potential investors in the United Kingdom are advised that all, or most, of the protections afforded by the United Kingdom regulatory system will not apply to an investment in the Fund and that compensation will not be available under the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

Copies of the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document are available in English, French, German, and Italian. Articles of incorporation, annual and semi-annual reports are available in English. Key Investor document is also available in Spanish. All of these documents can be obtained free of cost from the Fund’s registered office in Luxembourg: 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273 Luxembourg”, in Germany: Janus Henderson Investors, Tower 185, Friedrich-Ebert-Anlage 35-37, 60327 Frankfurt am Main, in Austria: Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG, Am Hof 2, 1010 Wien, in Spain: offices of the Spanish distributors, a list of which may be obtained at www.cnmv.es (Janus Henderson Fund is registered with the CNMV under number 259); in Belgium: Belgian Financial Service Provider CACEIS Belgium S.A., Avenue du Port 86 C b320, B-1000 Brussels; in Singapore: Janus Henderson Investors (Singapore) Limited, 138 Market Street #34-03/04 CapitaGreen, Singapore 048946; and in Switzerland from the Swiss representative: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich who are also the Swiss Paying Agent.

Please note that Isle of Man investors will not be protected by statutory compensation arrangements in respect of the Janus Henderson Fund. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Information on this document is on Janus Henderson Investors’ best endeavours.

Specific risks

  • Shares can lose value rapidly, and typically involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments. The value of your investment may fall as a result.
  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
  • Changes in currency exchange rates may cause the value of your investment and any income from it to rise or fall.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • Any security could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, increasing the risk of investment losses.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Alpha Fund

This document is intended solely for the use of professionals and is not for general public distribution.

The Janus Henderson Horizon Fund (the “Fund”) is a Luxembourg SICAV incorporated on 30 May 1985, managed by Henderson Management S.A. Any investment application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the Fund’s prospectus (including all relevant covering documents), which will contain investment restrictions. This document is intended as a summary only and potential investors must read the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document before investing. A copy of the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document can be obtained from Henderson Global Investors Limited in its capacity as Investment Manager and Distributor.

Issued in Europe by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus Capital International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier). We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The performance data does not take into account the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. If you invest through a third party provider you are advised to consult them directly as charges, performance and terms and conditions may differ materially.

Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment.

The Fund is a recognised collective investment scheme for the purpose of promotion into the United Kingdom. Potential investors in the United Kingdom are advised that all, or most, of the protections afforded by the United Kingdom regulatory system will not apply to an investment in the Fund and that compensation will not be available under the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

Copies of the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document are available in English, French, German, and Italian. Articles of incorporation, annual and semi-annual reports are available in English. Key Investor document is also available in Spanish. All of these documents can be obtained free of cost from the local offices of Janus Henderson Investors: 201 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3AE for UK, Swedish and Scandinavian investors; Via Dante 14, 20121 Milan, Italy, for Italian investors and Roemer Visscherstraat 43-45, 1054 EW Amsterdam, the Netherlands. for Dutch investors; and the Fund’s: Austrian Paying Agent Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Vienna; French Paying Agent BNP Paribas Securities Services, 3, rue d’Antin, F-75002 Paris; German Information Agent Marcard, Stein & Co, Ballindamm 36, 20095 Hamburg; Belgian Financial Service Provider CACEIS Belgium S.A., Avenue du Port 86 C b320, B-1000 Brussels; Spanish Representative Allfunds Bank S.A. Estafeta, 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja, Alcobendas 28109 Madrid; Singapore Representative Janus Henderson Investors (Singapore) Limited, 138 Market Street, #34-03 / 04 CapitaGreen 048946; or Swiss Representative BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich who are also the Swiss Paying Agent. RBC Investor Services Trust Hong Kong Limited, a subsidiary of the joint venture UK holding company RBC Investor Services Limited, 51/F Central Plaza, 18 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2978 5656 is the Fund’s Representative in Hong Kong.

Information on this document is on Janus Henderson Investors’ best endeavours.

Specific risks

  • Shares can lose value rapidly, and typically involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments. The value of your investment may fall as a result.
  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
  • Changes in currency exchange rates may cause the value of your investment and any income from it to rise or fall.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • Any security could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, increasing the risk of investment losses.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Pan European Fund

This document is intended solely for the use of professionals and is not for general public distribution.

The Janus Henderson Fund (the ""Fund"") is a Luxembourg SICAV incorporated on 26 September 2000, managed by Henderson Management S.A. Any investment application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the Fund’s prospectus (including all relevant covering documents), which will contain investment restrictions. This document is intended as a summary only and potential investors must read the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document before investing. A copy of the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document can be obtained from Henderson Global Investors Limited in its capacity as Investment Manager and Distributor.

Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus Capital International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier).

Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The performance data does not take into account the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. If you invest through a third party provider you are advised to consult them directly as charges, performance and terms and conditions may differ materially.

The Fund is a recognised collective investment scheme for the purpose of promotion into the United Kingdom. Potential investors in the United Kingdom are advised that all, or most, of the protections afforded by the United Kingdom regulatory system will not apply to an investment in the Fund and that compensation will not be available under the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

Copies of the Fund’s prospectus and key investor information document are available in English, French, German, and Italian. Articles of incorporation, annual and semi-annual reports are available in English. Key Investor document is also available in Spanish. All of these documents can be obtained free of cost from the Fund’s registered office in Luxembourg: 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273 Luxembourg”, in Germany: Janus Henderson Investors, Tower 185, Friedrich-Ebert-Anlage 35-37, 60327 Frankfurt am Main, in Austria: Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG, Am Hof 2, 1010 Wien, in Spain: offices of the Spanish distributors, a list of which may be obtained at www.cnmv.es (Janus Henderson Fund is registered with the CNMV under number 259); in Belgium: Belgian Financial Service Provider CACEIS Belgium S.A., Avenue du Port 86 C b320, B-1000 Brussels; in Singapore: Janus Henderson Investors (Singapore) Limited, 138 Market Street #34-03/04 CapitaGreen, Singapore 048946; and in Switzerland from the Swiss representative: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich who are also the Swiss Paying Agent.

Please note that Isle of Man investors will not be protected by statutory compensation arrangements in respect of the Janus Henderson Fund. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Information on this document is on Janus Henderson Investors’ best endeavours.

Specific risks

  • Shares can lose value rapidly, and typically involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments. The value of your investment may fall as a result.
  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
  • Changes in currency exchange rates may cause the value of your investment and any income from it to rise or fall.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • Any security could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, increasing the risk of investment losses.

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