KEY MARKET DATA
| Equity market returns for Q4 2018 (%) | Local currency | Sterling | Dollar | YTD sterling | Qtr dollar | YTD dollar |
|---|
| US S&P 500 | -14.0 | -6.2 | -11.9 | -0.4 | -14.0 | -6.2 |
| Japan: Topix | -17.8 | -17.8 | -12.9 | -10.4 | -14.9 | -15.6 |
| Euro area: Euro Stoxx | -13.2 | -14.8 | -12.5 | -13.8 | -14.5 | -18.9 |
| UK: FTSE All Share | -11.0 | -13.0 | -11.0 | -13.0 | -13.1 | -18.0 |
| MSCI Far East ex Japan (US$) | - | - | -8.0 | -12.1 | -10.2 | -17.2 |
| MSCI Emerging Markets (US$) | - | - | -5.6 | -11.5 | -7.9 | -16.6 |
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Janus Henderson Investors, index price returns, as at 31 December 2018.
Note: the TOPIX Index Value and the TOPIX Marks are subject to the proprietary rights owned by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. owns all rights and know-how relating to the TOPIX such as calculation, publication and use of the TOPIX Index Value and relating to the TOPIX Marks. No Product is in any way sponsored, endorsed or promoted by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
| | Forecast P/E 2018 | Forecast P/E 2019 | Forecast EPS growth 2018 (%) | Forecast EPS growth 2019 (%) |
|---|
| World | 13.8 | 12.9 | 15.3 | 7.5 |
| Developed | 14.3 | 13.3 | 15.8 | 7.2 |
| Emerging markets | 11.3 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| UK | 11.9 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 6.3 |
| US | 15.6 | 14.5 | 24.0 | 7.8 |
| Eurozone | 12.4 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 9.2 |
| Japan | 11.2 | 10.8 | 38.9 | 3.2 |
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Janus Henderson Investors' calculations, and IBES (institutional Brokers' Estimates System) estimates for MSCI Indices as at 31 December 2018. Forecast EPS (earnings per share), Forecast P/E (price-to-earnings ratio).
| Consensus GDP growth forecasts (%) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|
| US | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Euro area | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| UK | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Asia ex Japan | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| BRICs | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| World | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
Source: Bloomberg, economic forecasts, as at 7 January 2018. Forecast GDP = real gross domestic product.
Constituents:
Euro area: EU member states using euro currency (currently 19)
Asia: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam
BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, China
World: G10, Eastern Europe & Africa, Asia, Latin America, Middle East
| Consensus inflation forecasts (CPI %) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Euro area | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| UK | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Asia ex Japan | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| BRICs | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| World | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
Source: Bloomberg, economic forecasts, as at 7 January 2018. Forecast CPI = consumer price index.
| Bonds | 31 December 2018 yield | Qtr return % | YTD return % |
|---|
| US 10-year Treasury | 2.69 | 3.81 | -2.90 |
| Japan 10-year government bonds | 0.00 | 1.32 | 0.72 |
| Germany 10-year bund | 0.25 | 2.24 | 2.87 |
| UK 10-year gilts | 1.27 | 2.77 | 0.61 |
| Corporate bonds: (Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Index $) | - | -1.05 | -5.35 |
| High yield: (Merrill Lynch Global High Yield $) | - | -3.79 | -3.33 |
| Emerging market debt (JPM Global Emerging Markets Debt $) | - | -1.19 | -4.61 |
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Janus Henderson Investors, as at 31 December 2018.
| Currencies and commodities | 31 December 2018 | Qtr change % | YTD change (%) |
|---|
| Yen/$ | 109.72 | - | - |
| Yen/£ | 139.73 | - | - |
| $/£ | 1.27 | - | - |
| Euro/$ | 0.87 | - | - |
| Euro/£ | 1.11 | - | - |
| S&P GSCI Total Return Index $ | - | -22.94 | -13.82 |
| Brent oil ($/barrel) | - | -35.83 | -20.24 |
| Gold bullion ($/Troy oz) | - | 7.54 | -1.70 |
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Janus Henderson Investors, as at 31 December 2018.
The above data is intended for illustration purposes only and is not indicative of the historical or future performance or the chances of success of any particular strategy. References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security.