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Making Sense of the 2020 U.S. Election

Insights on the potential market impact and investment implications of the 2020 U.S. presidential race.

The 2020 U.S. presidential election comes at a historic time, with the global economy in the grips of a pandemic and markets volatile in the face of uncertainty. What should investors focus on? Our investment teams and financial experts offer their perspectives on what the lead-up to the election – and the eventual outcome – could mean for financial markets.

Latest Insights

No free lunch

Feb 21, 2021

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi Asset Team, responds to the planned US$1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus from US President Biden’s new government.

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A blue wave or a blue swell?

Jan 7, 2021

With a Senate majority, Democrats will have an easier time of achieving their agenda. But it won’t occur without compromise, creating optimism in markets.

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Peach State run-off could herald a light-blue wave for US politics

Jan 6, 2021

With Georgia’s Senate run-off vote offering a final, dramatic twist in the US election, what would it mean if Peach State voters hand power to the Democrats? Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi Asset Team, considers the ramifications of a potentially seismic political result.

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Options market warms to divided government

Nov 10, 2020

The options market signals that riskier assets may find a supportive environment in an era of split government and policy moderation.

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US election reflections – celebrating gridlock

Nov 5, 2020

In a tightly contested US election, where the issue of postal votes could decide the victor, what does this mean for financial markets? Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, looks ahead to potential policy paths and the dwindling prospects of a Biden fiscal bonanza.

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2020 US election: first take

Nov 4, 2020

Why the removal of election uncertainty could support markets – regardless of the outcome.

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Knowledge Labs | Continuing Education

Equity markets price in uncontested US election

Nov 2, 2020

Director of Research Matt Peron says when it comes to the U.S. election, the biggest risk for equity markets is not which party gets voted into office but whether the outcome is contested. So far, equities expect a clear winner on or near Election Day.

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Low rates versus US election: what matters for fixed income?

Oct 23, 2020

Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes central bank policy is likely to be the dominant influence on fixed income markets, regardless of who wins the US election.

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The end of an era: emerging markets prepare for a post-globalisation world

Oct 20, 2020

Portfolio Manager Daniel Graña explains that in light of the retreat from further global economic integration, reformist policies and value-added services are likely to become future drivers of emerging market growth and investment returns.

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