2023 Outlook: James Henderson, Portfolio Manager

As we look into 2023, there are a number of things we will be watching closely. Interest rates will likely dominate much of the thinking as investors seek to establish how far rates will go up in order to discount the extent of the slowdown. At the stock level, the all-important theme will be cost control, as we watch to see whether wage rises will be contaminated, whether raw material prices come down and whether companies are able to push prices up to keep their margins. And crucially, we will be waiting for signs of economic recovery, which, when it comes could fuel rapid earnings growth.

Within this context, there should still be plenty of scope for opportunity across the market and in many sectors. Companies with excellent management tend to come through slowdowns stronger – by keeping their costs under control and then reaping the benefits when demand picks up – whilst the weaker players disappear.

One sector that we will continue to look at throughout the next 12 months is manufacturing. The UK’s manufacturing sector is very competitive as a result of both self-help and the depreciation of sterling in recent years. As an industry, it is well-disciplined and well-prepared to deal with difficult environments. Both HOT and Lowland have good exposure to industrials, with holdings such as TT Electronics and Morgan Advanced Materials.