If it rolls, floats or flies — we rarely lend it money
To us, the asset class is cyclical. A good example of this can be seen in the average price of the Credit Suisse High Yield Index going back almost 30 years. See below.
High yield is cyclical
[caption id=”attachment_251749″ align=”alignnone” width=”640″]
Source: Credit Suisse, as at 28 February 2014 Note: US high yield index[/caption]
Over time, the average price of the high yield index has traded between 67 and 105, 68 and 102, 59 and 104. We are now at an average price of 105. How is this not a cyclical asset class?
You should love high yield with average prices in the 60s, while there should be some degree of caution at the valuation levels we see today. As a strategic bond manager, we use high yield at certain points in the cycle to boost returns for investors. Over the life of our Henderson Strategic Bond Fund we have had allocations ranging from 20% to 80% in pure high yield. We are currently at 55%, and we believe this is the peak for this cycle.
High yield is cyclical and within the asset class there are many cyclical industries. Generally speaking, we do not lend money to the autos, shipping or airline industries. Our motto has basically been: ‘if it rolls, floats or flies – we rarely lend it money’.
We do not like the heavy cyclical industries – we prefer the stable, dull, but still quite levered opportunities. These include companies in cable TV, mobile telecoms, healthcare and packaging.
We also avoid industries in structural decline, such as yellow pages phone directories or regional newspapers. I would argue retailers like Matalan are also in structural decline, these are companies set to see business eroded by online. I am not sure a company such as Matalan should exist. Whether a company should exist is a huge part of what we discuss in our team. We all recognise a company like the AA should exist, but I am not so sure about Matalan.
Essentially, we believe high yield credit is a cyclical asset class, which should be used strategically. However, wearing our income hat, there is always a need for a healthy allocation to higher yielding assets to deliver the income required for investors. While it may be difficult to avoid a short-term erosion of capital in risk-off environments, careful security selection can insulate investors from periods of higher defaults. This is the approach we take for our Henderson Fixed Interest Monthly Income and Henderson Preference & Bond Funds. Having said this, we have allocated very little to high yield markets this year as we have become slightly cautious of current valuation levels.
For more insights on fixed income markets, visit us on twitter: @StrategicBond
These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.
Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.
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Important information
Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.
- Shares/Units can lose value rapidly, and typically involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments. The value of your investment may fall as a result.
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
- The Fund may use derivatives with the aim of reducing risk or managing the portfolio more efficiently. However this introduces other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
- In respect of the equities portfolio within the Fund, this follows a value investment style that creates a bias towards certain types of companies. This may result in the Fund significantly underperforming or outperforming the wider market.
Specific risks
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- The Fund invests in high yield (non-investment grade) bonds and while these generally offer higher rates of interest than investment grade bonds, they are more speculative and more sensitive to adverse changes in market conditions.
- If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- CoCos can fall sharply in value if the financial strength of an issuer weakens and a predetermined trigger event causes the bonds to be converted into shares/units of the issuer or to be partly or wholly written off.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
Specific risks
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- The Fund invests in high yield (non-investment grade) bonds and while these generally offer higher rates of interest than investment grade bonds, they are more speculative and more sensitive to adverse changes in market conditions.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- CoCos can fall sharply in value if the financial strength of an issuer weakens and a predetermined trigger event causes the bonds to be converted into shares/units of the issuer or to be partly or wholly written off.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.