Today’s Conference Board consumer survey provides more evidence that economic weakness is spreading to the labour market. An indicator combining consumer assessments of current job-finding difficulty and prospects in six months’ time rose to a 14-month high in June – see chart. This indicator usually leads the unemployment rate at turning points, suggesting a move up from the current 3.6%. The median projection of FOMC participants for the fourth quarter of 2019 was revised down from 3.7% to 3.6% at last week’s meeting – a likely overshoot supports expectations of rate cuts over the remainder of 2019.
These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.