Portfolio Manager, Nick Schommer, discusses how it may be prudent to sharpen the focus on sources of risk and return within one’s portfolio and seek to ensure these are not overly correlated.
- The recovery to date has been highlighted by distinct swings in leadership – between value and growth, smaller and larger capitalizations, and cyclical and secular growth stocks.
- Given fluctuating markets and changing leadership it may now be prudent to sharpen the focus on sources of risk and return within one’s portfolio and seek to ensure these are not overly correlated.
- A portfolio not dependent on specific market capitalizations, styles or sectors, but rather, focused on quality business models, may benefit from uncorrelated sources of risk and return with the potential to perform across multiple market scenarios.
In our view, the shifting nature of the COVID economic recovery has brought into focus the potential value of owning diversifying equity assets. A blend of holdings that do not look like the S&P 500® Index, are not dependent on specific market capitalizations, styles or sectors, but rather exhibit the attributes of durable business models with the potential to perform in different market scenarios, may prove beneficial at this stage in the cycle.
The COVID Recovery Has Been Swift but Uneven
Powerful fiscal and monetary stimulus, strong capital market performance and a robust housing market have positioned both individuals and corporations to reinforce a widening economic recovery. Recently, though, the Delta variant has raised fears of slowing consumer demand. At the same time, supply chain bottlenecks and raw material and labor shortages have stoked inflation concerns and the potential for stormier weather ahead from an interest rate and economic data standpoint.
Thus, we have witnessed an ongoing push-pull in markets, and the recovery to date has been highlighted by distinct swings in leadership ‒ between value and growth, smaller- and larger-capitalizations and cyclical and secular growth stocks. At the end of last year and earlier this year, cyclical, more value-oriented stocks assumed market leadership. These were companies positioned to benefit from a reopening and a normalization of the economy in industries like travel where consumers directed pent-up demand and savings. Cyclical companies ‒ which tend to have a greater degree of operating leverage and perform better during periods of higher GDP growth –rebounded strongly, in general, as the market gained confidence in a V-shaped recovery.
Diversifying Away from Big Tech
This is a stark reversal of the theme that saw the digital economy continue to thrive while the physical economy stalled at the onset of the pandemic, when a handful of large technology companies benefited directly from the COVID environment. As with any crisis, the pandemic created a set of economic challenges that exposed weakness in certain business models and created opportunity for others. As businesses and consumers became increasingly dependent on ‒ and comfortable with ‒ digital technology during widespread lockdowns, big tech companies’ prominence in the economy grew.
As it stood in August, the information technology and communication services sectors made up 39% of the S&P 500 Index (as of 8/16/21). Out of eleven economic sectors, information technology alone was larger than six sectors combined (energy, utilities, materials, real estate, consumer staples and industrials). What’s more, the largest five stocks represented nearly 22% of the index1, a level of concentration not seen even in the 2000 dot-com bubble
Many investors’ primary exposure to U.S. equities is associated with the S&P 500 Index, which represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. market.2 However, the S&P 500 has become ‒ perhaps unwittingly to many ‒ an index increasingly concentrated in a handful of large-cap technology stocks ‒ a development that is certainly not without risk. This is not to say these stocks are not worth owning or are bad companies. On the contrary, they have seen strong growth in recent years. As illustrated in the table below, over the trailing three years through the end of September 2020, the S&P 500 (which is market capitalization weighted, giving greater influence to the largest stocks) outperformed the equal-weighted S&P 500, due largely to the strong performance of the mega-cap tech stocks. But, particularly as the economic recovery has broadened, we have witnessed a substantial leadership change, as illustrated in the period since September last year during which the equal weighted index has significantly outperformed.
Exhibit 1: Index Returns (%)
Source: Bloomberg, as of 16 August 2021.
Given the fluctuating nature of the recovery, this demonstrates to us the potential benefits of owning diversifying equities in other market sectors or wholly outside of the highly tech-concentrated S&P 500.
Differentiation by Redefining Value
To be clear, we do not advocate looking different from an index just for the sake of being different, nor do we suggest trying to time which market segment will be the next to outperform. Rather, taking an independent and thoughtful approach may lead investors to attractive opportunities that can provide diversified sources of return.
For instance, we believe that investors can uncover value in the market not by focusing on traditional measures, like price-to-book and price-to-earnings ratios, but by identifying companies with durable business models that have the ability to create value independent of macroeconomic conditions or market trends. This can be the case when the market misunderstands the potential profitability of a business or its growth capacity. There may also be opportunity in undervalued businesses where, over time, the market becomes willing to pay more for that business after company, industry or market events have created short-term dislocations in value.
Thus, it is our belief that by building a knowledge base of specific companies, one can assemble holdings with different sources of value and the ability to move independently to potentially create uncorrelated sources of risk and return. Likewise, we think it is particularly important in this environment to better understand changes to company business models and differences in pre- and post-COVID financials to home in on investment opportunities.
Navigating an Unpredictable Recovery
Thus far, we have seen fluctuation in the markets and changing leadership as the economic recovery progresses. We expect this to continue, and it may therefore be prudent to sharpen the focus on sources of risk and return within one’s portfolio and seek to ensure these are not overly correlated. This could be through holding stocks of different market cap and sectors, or bringing in companies with diverse sources of value, uncovered through differentiated research. With more twists and turns likely ahead, a portfolio that is less dependent on the economic cycle and that avoids unintended concentration risks may well be welcome.
1Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/21.
2Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, as of 7/31/21.