Jeremiah Buckley, Co-Manager of the Janus Henderson Balanced Fund, and Doug Rao, Co-Manager of the Janus Henderson US Forty Fund, discuss what the next phase of technological disruption may look like, and some of the potential investment implications.
Disruption is creating winners and losers
As we have noted before, we are witnessing widespread technological disruption: the adoption of new technology across the global economy and simultaneous displacement of old technology. This development is either a threat or an opportunity, depending on which side of the digital divide a company finds itself. Disruption is creating a clear delineation between “have” and “have-not” companies. There are those that are adapting by leveraging their intellectual property (IP) or investing to transform their businesses and those who are encumbered with legacy assets. Many businesses, in our view, are on the wrong side of this trend and will either be left behind or face the prospect of higher, burdensome investment costs to catch up.
The next phase of disruption
We believe that the next phase of disruption will begin with companies that have established a head start in the first wave. Large digital platform providers are using their scale and enormous collection of data assets to enable artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, which we believe will be among the foundational technologies fuelling future growth. That said; official intervention could provide headwinds for these disruptors.
Paradoxically, we see part of the next phase as a democratisation of technology. Advanced technologies are becoming accessible to firms of all sizes. This levelling of the playing field is one reason why we believe the tech revolution could play out for an extended period.
We believe firms that have invested in making direct, digital connections with their customers stand to benefit. To continue delivering organic growth, we think companies increasingly need to have a direct relationship with their customer and a powerful feedback loop, which technology has helped to provide. We also see opportunities in firms that have invested strategically in cloud services like infrastructure and Software as a Service (SaaS), which helps drive faster innovation cycles. These tools help make firms more agile and adaptable. They also allow companies to offload costly internal networks, share data more readily across their organisations and deploy software more efficiently.
We see potential growth in unexpected areas as more traditional industries are leveraging technology in innovative ways. In the transportation industry, we have seen companies investing in sensors and using data analytics to understand where their assets are placed in networks, how they can be more efficient and offer better customer service. For example, a large equipment manufacturer has made the growth of precision agriculture a priority. They can now equip farm machinery with sensors and systems that collect and analyse data to more effectively prepare fields based on soil conditions, improve seed placement and spacing, apply fertilizer more efficiently and improve harvests. Tech advances like these that bring value to farmers may lead to an upgrade cycle in the industry, driving growth.
The retail industry has been hit particularly hard by the consumer shift to the online marketplace, but we have seen some retailers begin to leverage technology to improve their competitive standing. Companies now have the ability to use AI to analyse data driven by customer online preferences. With this data, they are able to make better deals and offers to customers, potentially increasing sales.
We think that companies’ adaption to new technology can continue to drive growth, but for every company that embraces technologies in new ways, there are companies at risk if they fail to adapt.
Despite rapid growth, we still see opportunity, especially in our focus market of US large-cap equities. Many of the world’s largest technology companies are based in the US, and it has been one of the great growth and innovation engines for the world. We foresee that continuing. Through the lens of innovation, we believe that there are still individual growth opportunities despite macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.
Technological disruption has impacted every business we analyse. The sheer scale of potential technology use is enormous. While there are remarkable applications, technology is also being woven into the minutiae of our everyday lives. As technology has disrupted companies throughout the economy, it has also informed how investors evaluate those companies. Investors must understand what businesses are doing to adapt to this vast technological change, because in our view, digital disruption is the single biggest factor impacting company fundamentals. Steve Schwarzman, the founder and long-term CEO of Blackstone, the largest private equity firm in the world, recently echoed this view: