Market GPS: Outlook for Bond Markets Hinges on Trajectory of Global Economy

Heading into the new year, a key question is whether the global economic slowdown has hit bottom and if we should expect growth to reaccelerate. Co-Heads of Strategic Fixed Income Jenna Barnard and John Pattullo discuss how the answer to that question could impact fixed income performance in 2020.

Key Takeaways

  • Contrary to the consensus view in 2019, we expected that bond yields would remain low for the foreseeable future. We have now seen consensus come back to our view as central banks globally return to easing mode.
  • Looking ahead, some indicators suggest the global economic slowdown could be nearing its end. If growth and inflation pick up again in 2020, bond markets could struggle.
  • In our view, the strength of the dollar could be key to determining whether – and by how much – the global economy accelerates going forward.

Which market trends should investors
watch in the year ahead?