Market GPS: Trade and Interest Rates Hold Keys to Economy in 2020

Portfolio Manager John Fujiwara explains why he believes conditions are ripe for a rotation toward previously out-of-favor value and cyclical stocks and why he expects the shape of the yield curve to hold significant clues about the state of the economy.

Key Takeaways

  • A crowded market favoring low-volatility, defensive and growth stocks has left valuation differentials at such levels that improving economic conditions could lead to a strong rotation toward value and cyclical names.
  • With the trade impasse affecting much of the global economy, investors should monitor future developments, as they may determine whether 2019’s softness has played out.
  • The level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve should not only provide clues on the state of the economy and inflation but also be key determinants in how investors position themselves for 2020 and beyond.

Which market trends should investors
watch in the year ahead?