Labour market watch: ominous UK vacancies fall

by Simon Ward

1 day ago

​The stock of vacancies – a leading indicator of the number of employees – peaked in January (three-month moving average basis), with another hefty fall in June.

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Global money update: signal still downbeat

by Simon Ward

1 day ago

​Six-month growth of real narrow money in the G7 economies and seven large emerging economies is estimated to have edged up to 1.9% (not annualised) in June but remains well below a post-GFC average of 3.2%

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Novo Nordisk: global leader in diabetes care

by Jamie Ross, CFA

5 days ago

​Jamie Ross, Manager of Janus Henderson Pan European Equity Fund, provides a snapshot of the typical analysis undertaken on every company considered for the portfolio. In this case, he explains the rationale behind the inclusion of the Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk.

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Same old: UK MPC U-turns after ignoring money trends

by Simon Ward

2 weeks ago

​Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s “sea change” speech this week has laid the foundation for a dovish MPC shift in August.

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“Don’t you, forget about me”

​Guy Barnard and Nicolas Scherf, Co-Managers of the Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Property Equities Fund, highlight that, while newsflow in Europe and the property sector has been mixed over recent months, the fundamentals for the European property equities market remain robust, with increasing value to be found for the active investor.

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A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

by Simon Ward

2 weeks ago

The forecasting approach used here signalled the 2018-19 global economic slowdown and suggests that the downswing is entering its final stage. Early indications are that 2020 will be a recovery year for the global economy, although this requires confirmation from a further rise in monetary growth. A bottoming of economic momentum may be associated with an increase in market volatility and a reversal of several recent trends.

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Quality growth in Europe: the five point checklist

by Jamie Ross, CFA

2 weeks ago

​What are the characteristics of a company potentially capable of generating reliable growth year after year? Here, Jamie Ross, manager of the Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund, gives insight into the team’s investment process, designed to identify good quality businesses capable of delivering sustainable and high returns over time.

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OECD leading indicator preview: still weakening

by Simon Ward

3 weeks ago

The OECD’s G7 leading indicator is estimated to have fallen further in May, signalling that global economic weakness will extend. A tiny glimmer of hope, however, is that the rate of decline appears to be easing. This is consistent with the view here, based on monetary trends, that economic momentum will reach a low in the third quarter, though with little revival in late 2019.

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Labour market watch: softer US jobs confidence

by Simon Ward

3 weeks ago

​Today’s Conference Board consumer survey provides more evidence that economic weakness is spreading to the labour market. An indicator combining consumer assessments of current job-finding difficulty and prospects in six months’ time rose to a 14-month high in June.

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Global money update: no recovery signal yet

by Simon Ward

1 month ago

​Six-month growth of global nominal narrow money appears to have risen to a 16-month high in May but an increase in inflation resulted in little change in real money expansion.

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Bailing out the Titanic with a teaspoon (or why hope is a strategy for the ECB)

by Andrew Mulliner, CFA

1 month ago

​The 6 June meeting of the European Central Bank effectively marked the beginning of the end of its president’s reign. Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager within Global Bonds, reflects on the outcome of the meeting and what the future holds with Draghi on his way out, an empty toolbox at the ECB and weakening global growth.

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Labour market watch: US / UK weakness

by Simon Ward

1 month ago

​Incoming news remains mostly supportive of the view here that economic weakness is spreading to labour markets.

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Do you remember the Great Financial Crisis?

by John Pattullo

1 month ago

​John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains how after the failure of QE to generate any sustainable growth or inflation the dial has turned to various forms of fiscal policy. But as he argues, a successful formula has to combine fiscal and monetary policies with structural reform.

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Essentials: Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity strategy

by Jamie Ross, CFA

1 month ago
This  ‘Essentials’ video provides an introduction to the actively managed Pan European Equity strategy run by European specialist Jamie Ross.
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Euroland relative economic prospects / BoP suggesting euro support

by Simon Ward

1 month ago

Euroland first-quarter GDP details released today support the view here that the Kitchin inventory cycle downswing is further advanced than in other regions – a positive for relative economic prospects.

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Labour market watch: more downbeat news

by Simon Ward

1 month ago

The view here remains that global economic weakness is spreading to labour markets, implying that it is becoming entrenched and will require more significant policy easing to reverse. Three news items in recent days are consistent with this development.

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UK corporate money trends flashing red

by Simon Ward

2 months ago

A previous post noted that UK corporate narrow money trends were giving a recession warning. The signal has strengthened in April data released today, with the six-month change in real M1 holdings of private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) moving deeper into negative territory – see first chart.

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Labour market watch: job openings rolling over

by Simon Ward

2 months ago

Last week’s flash PMIs for May confirmed that economic weakness has spread to the US, and from manufacturing to services. The next stage of the downswing, according to the analysis here, will be a crumbling of labour market resilience, which – together with slowing inflation – will add to pressure for central bank policy easing. This is the first of a series of short posts focusing on incoming labour market news.

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Euroland money trends suggesting relative resilience

by Simon Ward

2 months ago
Euroland money growth was  little changed in April and continues to give a hopeful message for economic prospects. Global weakness and a reversal of UK pre-Brexit stockbuilding, however, may delay a recovery in momentum until late 2019 / 2020.
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EU elections: all thunder and no lightning

by Ollie Beckett

2 months ago

European smaller caps Porfolio Manager Ollie Beckett responds to the EU elections result, outlining his views on the significance for European equities, and what he sees as the areas of interest in the months ahead.

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