Tell tail signs: April 2019 - The twilight of accommodative monetary policy's efficacy



​​Janus Henderson’s US-based Multi-Asset Solutions Team present their latest Tail Risk Report, using options market prices to infer expected tail gains and losses for each asset class. With the rally in growth assets continuing into March, the options signals now indicate that growth assets are in line with their historical average.

Key takeaways:

  • Given the 2019 rally in risk assets, we now consider their level of attractiveness roughly in line with their historical average.
  • While our options-based model indicates limited downside for risk assets, it also does not hint at additional upside now that dovish monetary policy and an increased potential for positive trade-dispute outcomes have been priced in the market.
  • We believe inflation is the biggest risk to financial assets, especially with longer-dated interest rates expected to remain low.

Please click on the link to access the document.

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

For promotional purposes.


Important message