China activity data: hold the champagne

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 jours

Discount the headlines – the Chinese economy remained soft in early 2019.

Official real GDP numbers are implausibly smooth. Nominal GDP trends are a better guide to economic swings. Nominal GDP changes reflect developments in prices as well as output but a crude adjustment can be made by deflating the numbers by the consumer price index.

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Global money update: US weakness offsets Chinese improvement

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 semaine

​China and the US released March money data overnight. The Chinese numbers were positive, though not strong, while US data confirmed a sharp slowdown in narrow money indicated by earlier weekly data.

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How did they miss it? Central bankers and the global economic downturn…

par Jenna Barnard

il y a 1 semaine

​Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains how and why so many major central banks have been wrong-footed on economic growth in their countries and around the globe.

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Leveraged loans — a look behind the headlines

par Elissa Johnson

il y a 1 semaine

​The financial press has not been short of alarming headlines on leveraged loans in recent months. Elissa Johnson, Portfolio Manager within Janus Henderson’s specialist loans team headed by David Milward, clarifies some of the negativity in the messages from a European perspective...

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A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 semaine

​The forecasting approach employed here – relying on monetary and cycle analysis – suggested that global economic momentum would continue to weaken through the first half of 2019. Incoming news has supported the scenario but equity markets have rallied strongly, partly reflecting an inflation-driven improvement in the monetary backdrop. We doubt that this will be sustained and expect further weak data to undermine investor hopes of an early economic recovery.

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Focus sur les marchés européens du haut rendement

par Tom Ross

il y a 2 semaines
Compte tenu du changement d’orientation de la politique monétaire des banques centrales et du caractère contradictoire des statistiques économiques, Tom Ross, gérant de portefeuille d’obligations d’entreprises, examine les conditions du marché auxquelles sont confrontés les investisseurs des marchés européens d’obligations à haut rendement. 
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UK corporate money trends giving recession warning

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 semaines

UK top-line monetary growth rates were little changed in February but sectoral details show that the six-month change in narrow money (M1) holdings of private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) turned negative in inflation-adjusted terms. Such a development historically has preceded business retrenchment and a slowdown or contraction in aggregate economic activity. With GDP growth already weak, even a slowdown would imply economic stagnation, at best.

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Euroland money update: surprising strength

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 semaines

​Euroland economic weakness was signalled by a monetary slowdown in late 2017 / early 2018. Money growth rates stabilised in mid-2018, while more recent data have shown an improvement, particularly in real terms. Current trends may be contrasted with 2008 and 2011, when unwise ECB policy tightening resulted in real money contraction and subsequent recessions. The suggestion is that economic momentum will stabilise during the first half of 2019 and recover later in the year, barring negative external developments.

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Brexit — Theresa May’s final dance?

par Bethany Payne

il y a 3 semaines

Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, assesses the latest twists and turns in the path to Brexit.

 
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Why isn't the UK MPC easing?

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 semaines

The view here is that the MPC should have cut Bank rate at its meeting last week. Monetary trends are worryingly weak, the global economy continues to slow and business confidence has fallen to a level historically associated with policy easing.

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Five reasons for fading UK labour market strength

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois
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Fasciné par le revenu

par Tom Ross

il y a 1 mois

​Tom Ross, gérant d’obligations d’entreprises, examine les particularités du marché européen des obligations à haut rendement, l'un des derniers bastions du revenu dans un monde en manque de rendement.

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Global money update: is the mini-recovery ending?

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Global six-month real narrow money growth is estimated to have edged up further in February but a likely rebound in inflation through mid-year could reverse the recent recovery. Such a scenario would suggest an extension of global economic weakness into early 2020.

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Strategic Fixed Income: early innings of a sovereign bond bull market?

par Jenna Barnard

il y a 1 mois
Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, shares her latest views on the bond markets; remaining bullish on duration and retaining a defensive stance in credit.
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Chinese money update: no reflation signal

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Chinese money and credit trends remain weak, casting doubt on claims that policy stimulus is gaining traction and will lead to a significant recovery in economic momentum later in 2019.

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European equities: a growing watch list of opportunities

par Jamie Ross, CFA

il y a 1 mois
In this video update, European equities manager James Ross outlines his ‘balanced, slightly bullish’ views on the European market. While investors’ attention has been caught up by political theatrics, escalating trade tensions and signs of slowing growth across the globe, James continues to focus on good quality businesses that he believes can consistently deliver a high return on capital over time.
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Brexit — remainers have their day but threaten long delay

par Bethany Payne

il y a 1 mois

Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, summarises the latest developments in the parliamentary votes on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, the terms by which the UK will leave the European Union, looking at their potential meaning, future outcomes and impact on the markets. 

 
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OECD leading indicators still weakening

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​The OECD’s composite leading indicators support the expectation here of a further loss of global economic momentum into mid-2019.

The OECD’s indicators provide an independent, though less timely, cross-check of signals from monetary trends. With rare exceptions (e.g. Canada, India), the country indicators do not contain a monetary component. They tend to be dominated by business and consumer survey information, though also include financial indicators such as equity prices and the yield curve.​

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Brexit’s 11th hour — options and possibilities

par Bethany Payne

il y a 1 mois

UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will attempt — for the second time — to get her deal through parliament on Tuesday 12 March, followed by two more votes on 13 and 14 March, if the first fails. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, shares her thoughts on the likely scenarios and options ahead of the vote next week.

 
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Negative signals for US business spending

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Two recent pieces of news support the expectation here that stockbuilding and business investment will be major drags on the US economy this year.

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