Zone géographique: Pan-Europe

Global money update: no recovery signal yet

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 jours

​Six-month growth of global nominal narrow money appears to have risen to a 16-month high in May but an increase in inflation resulted in little change in real money expansion.

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Bailing out the Titanic with a teaspoon (or why hope is a strategy for the ECB)

par Andrew Mulliner

il y a 5 jours

​The 6 June meeting of the European Central Bank effectively marked the beginning of the end of its president’s reign. Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager within Global Bonds, reflects on the outcome of the meeting and what the future holds with Draghi on his way out, an empty toolbox at the ECB and weakening global growth.

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Labour market watch: US / UK weakness

par Simon Ward

il y a 6 jours

​Incoming news remains mostly supportive of the view here that economic weakness is spreading to labour markets.

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Do you remember the Great Financial Crisis?

par John Pattullo

il y a 6 jours

​John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains how after the failure of QE to generate any sustainable growth or inflation the dial has turned to various forms of fiscal policy. But as he argues, a successful formula has to combine fiscal and monetary policies with structural reform.

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Essentials: Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity strategy

par Jamie Ross, CFA

il y a 1 semaine
This  ‘Essentials’ video provides an introduction to the actively managed Pan European Equity strategy run by European specialist Jamie Ross.
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Euroland relative economic prospects / BoP suggesting euro support

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 semaines

Euroland first-quarter GDP details released today support the view here that the Kitchin inventory cycle downswing is further advanced than in other regions – a positive for relative economic prospects.

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Labour market watch: more downbeat news

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 semaines

The view here remains that global economic weakness is spreading to labour markets, implying that it is becoming entrenched and will require more significant policy easing to reverse. Three news items in recent days are consistent with this development.

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Élections européennes : beaucoup de bruit pour rien

par Ollie Beckett

il y a 2 semaines

Les résultats des élections européennes changent-ils la donne pour les investisseurs européens ?

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UK corporate money trends flashing red

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 semaines

A previous post noted that UK corporate narrow money trends were giving a recession warning. The signal has strengthened in April data released today, with the six-month change in real M1 holdings of private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) moving deeper into negative territory – see first chart.

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Labour market watch: job openings rolling over

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 semaines

Last week’s flash PMIs for May confirmed that economic weakness has spread to the US, and from manufacturing to services. The next stage of the downswing, according to the analysis here, will be a crumbling of labour market resilience, which – together with slowing inflation – will add to pressure for central bank policy easing. This is the first of a series of short posts focusing on incoming labour market news.

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Euroland money trends suggesting relative resilience

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 semaines
Euroland money growth was  little changed in April and continues to give a hopeful message for economic prospects. Global weakness and a reversal of UK pre-Brexit stockbuilding, however, may delay a recovery in momentum until late 2019 / 2020.
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European elections: centrists struggle but no breakthrough for the far-right

par Bethany Payne

il y a 3 semaines

The European Parliament elections on 23 May produced damaging results in varying degrees for both the European Parliament and the main parties in the UK. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, explains the main points and provides a brief assessment of the impact on the markets.

 
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Equities / cash switching rules: an update

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

Previous posts (last one here) discussed two rules for switching between global equities and US dollar cash based on monetary signals. The rules are currently giving opposite recommendations. Historically, the opportunity cost of holding cash has been low, on average, under such circumstances.

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Global narrow money growth still weak

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Global six-month real narrow money growth appears to have recovered partially in April after a March relapse but remains weak by post-GFC standards

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US C&I loans confirming stocks cycle downswing

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Recent US industrial output weakness is judged here to be partly due to a downswing in the Kitchin stockbuilding cycle – firms are cutting production to clear an overhang of inventories.

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Global industrial weakness intensifying as Kitchin / Juglar downswings accelerate

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

US and Chinese April industrial output figures released yesterday undershot expectations, confirming that global industrial activity continues to weaken alarmingly.

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Chinese money / credit trends still weak before tariff escalation

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

The PBoC today released detailed monetary data for April, allowing calculation of true M1, the preferred narrow money measure here. Six-month growth of the aggregate, seasonally adjusted, rose to a 14-month high but remains low by historical standards – see first chart. Allowing for the usual lead, the suggestion is that two-quarter nominal GDP expansion will stabilise at a weak level in the second / third quarters and recover modestly towards year-end.

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UK labour market cooling, hawkish MPC off track

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

Recent posts on UK monetary statistics noted that real narrow money holdings of private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) were contracting, suggesting a faster decline in business investment and weaker labour demand. Yesterday’s labour market report confirms that demand for workers is softening.

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Global industrial output contracting ex. China

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

The forecast here at the start of the year was that global economic momentum – as measured by the six-month rate of change of industrial output in the G7 economies and seven large emerging economies – would continue to weaken through around July 2019. How is this forecast playing out?

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UK money trends still negative

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Euroland monetary trends, as noted last week, suggest that the economic outlook is improving at the margin. UK trends, by contrast, appear to be signalling deteriorating prospects.

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