Zone géographique: Pan-Europe

August PMIs: US / Euroland convergence

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 jours

​Narrow money trends have been signalling US economic weakness but a stabilisation of momentum in Euroland, with no recession.

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Why the US yield curve recession signal could prove misleading

par Simon Ward

il y a 5 jours

​Investors were spooked last week by a further inversion of the US Treasury yield curve but the manner of the inversion casts doubt on the validity of the associated recession warning.

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Global money trends still downbeat

par Simon Ward

il y a 6 jours

​Incoming narrow money data for July have been disappointing, suggesting that a global economic recovery will be delayed until Q2 2020.

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Labour market watch: gathering UK weakness

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 semaines

​According to Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, recessions in the US “historically begin when the unemployment rate climbs 0.4 percentage points above its cycle low”.

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Chinese policy easing still isn't working

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 semaines

Chinese July money numbers were very disappointing, signalling that an economic recovery remains distant. More decisive monetary policy easing is urgently required but the authorities are constrained by a teetering RMB and surging food prices.

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Don't discount a 2020 rebound

par Simon Ward

il y a 3 semaines

​The immediate global economic outlook remains weak but cycle analysis suggests that 2020 will be a recovery year.

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Suppression de la commission de performance pour certains fonds

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il y a 3 semaines

 

 
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US profits revision suggesting weaker outlook

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​The big news in last week’s US GDP release was a huge downward revision to corporate profits growth in recent years.

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Quick view: (ECB) shock and bore

par Andrew Mulliner

il y a 1 mois

The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on 25 July was billed as the most important ECB meeting of the last few years. Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager within Global Bonds, reflects on the outcome of this highly anticipated session.

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Euroland PMI weak but money trends still hopeful

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​The Euroland manufacturing PMI fell further in July but the view here remains that the index is bottoming, based on the leading signal from a rise in six-month real narrow money growth since late 2018 – see first chart.

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US C&I loans confirming inventory downswing

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Three-month growth of US commercial bank loans and leases fell from 1.5% (6.3% annualised) in February to 0.9% (3.5%) in June, reflecting a sharp slowdown in commercial and industrial (C&I) lending – see first chart.

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Global economic update: beware "false dawn" PMI bounce

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​As discussed in Tuesday’s post, global narrow money trends suggest that economic momentum will bottom out in the third quarter of 2019 but remain weak into early 2020.

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European equities outlook: Does US market resilience bode well for Europe?

par John Bennett

il y a 1 mois
In this video, John Bennett, Director of European Equities at Janus Henderson, looks back at the first half of 2019, and considers his expectations for the performance of European equities for the remainder of the year. He also addresses why, in the ‘growth vs value’ story, he prefers to follow a more ‘blended’ approach to stock selection.
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Labour market watch: ominous UK vacancies fall

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​The stock of vacancies – a leading indicator of the number of employees – peaked in January (three-month moving average basis), with another hefty fall in June.

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Global money update: signal still downbeat

par Simon Ward

il y a 1 mois

​Six-month growth of real narrow money in the G7 economies and seven large emerging economies is estimated to have edged up to 1.9% (not annualised) in June but remains well below a post-GFC average of 3.2%

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Novo Nordisk: global leader in diabetes care

par Jamie Ross, CFA

il y a 1 mois

​Jamie Ross, Manager of Janus Henderson Pan European Equity Fund, provides a snapshot of the typical analysis undertaken on every company considered for the portfolio. In this case, he explains the rationale behind the inclusion of the Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk.

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Same old: UK MPC U-turns after ignoring money trends

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 mois

​Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s “sea change” speech this week has laid the foundation for a dovish MPC shift in August.

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Immobilier coté « Ne nous oubliez pas »

par Guy Barnard, Nicolas Scherf

il y a 2 mois

Malgré le caractère mitigé de l’actualité en Europe et dans le secteur immobilier ces derniers mois, Guy Barnard et Nicolas Scherf, co-gérants du fonds Pan European Property Equities, estiment que les fondamentaux des valeurs foncières européennes restent solides et que les adeptes de la gestion active peuvent encore identifier de bonnes opportunités d'investissement.

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A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

par Simon Ward

il y a 2 mois

The forecasting approach used here signalled the 2018-19 global economic slowdown and suggests that the downswing is entering its final stage. Early indications are that 2020 will be a recovery year for the global economy, although this requires confirmation from a further rise in monetary growth. A bottoming of economic momentum may be associated with an increase in market volatility and a reversal of several recent trends.

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Quality growth in Europe: the five point checklist

par Jamie Ross, CFA

il y a 2 mois

​What are the characteristics of a company potentially capable of generating reliable growth year after year? Here, Jamie Ross, manager of the Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund, gives insight into the team’s investment process, designed to identify good quality businesses capable of delivering sustainable and high returns over time.

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