Is het 'TINA'-tijdperk voor aandelen voorbij?
8 beknopt artikel
Alistair Sayer, Client Portfolio Manager, gaat na waarom de behoefte van beleggers aan reële diversificatie in hun portefeuilles op lange termijn een drijvende kracht kan zijn achter de vraag naar liquide alternatieven omdat zij inflatie en stijgende rente willen beheersen.
- The fall in markets in the first half of 2022 was implausibly smooth, but economic and market conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.
- Investors have increasingly looked towards private markets and real assets as they seek to manage inflation, rising rates and the consequent impact on traditional asset markets, but these assets are often illiquid.
- Liquid alternatives can provide structurally different alphas, offering different kinds of diversification, with independent sources of risk, and potentially little correlation to stocks and bonds.
For over a decade, equities have been in vogue. The relentless rise of stock markets since the global financial crisis has ensured that ‘buying the dip’ has been a successful investment strategy which, by a process of Darwinian selection, has fuelled the rise of many a senior investor. But what has underpinned this one-way bet?
T.I.N.A. – There Is No Alternative (to equities, that is)
As equity dividend yields dwarfed diminishing fixed income coupons, suppressed by lower and lower interest rates, the multiples applied to equities skyrocketed. It seemed irrelevant that many companies’ supercharged valuations were not underpinned by dividends at all; but were simply growth companies in a new paradigm – a shift in consumer demand for cleaner, more ethical and technologically pioneering investments.
However, with the advent of rampant and persistent inflation, TINA has ‘Turned’. Global equities were down more than 21% in the first half of 2022, and equities can arguably no longer be ‘simply the best’ investment choice for investors. Concurrently, and at odds with the predominant trend this century, fixed income assets have also cratered in 2022 on the fears of rising interest rates. Hitherto in this century, bonds and equities have delivered positive but uncorrelated returns. This low correlation has enabled a diversified portfolio, commonly referred to as 60:40 (60% equities, 40% fixed income) to deliver a stable growth profile to investors. But that paradigm seems to have come to an end. The Q2 2022 collapse in 60:40 returns surpassed even that experienced during the worst quarter of the Global Financial Crisis.
All this carnage to investors’ portfolios seems be happening like a slow-motion car crash. Volatility, as measured by the VIX ‘fear’ index is rising, but at a gradual pace relative to the sell-off in asset markets. One argument for this is that the market got overheated by post-COVID government stimulus. Furloughed employees looking for entertainment, unemployment cheques being spent on the advice of Reddit forums, disruptive technologies driving change, etc. Whatever your choice of market elixir, it might be argued a correction was to be expected and what we are seeing is just the froth that is being blown off the top of the market. After all, based on the last decade of returns, investors are still in the money.
Exhibit 1: Where is the volatility?
Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson, 31 December 2019 to 28 October 2021. Past performance does not predict future returns.
The fall in markets has been implausibly smooth thus far, but if the VIX is to be believed, further volatility is expected (Exhibit 1). Given that statement, the asset allocation community faces some dilemmas. Has the correction thus far sufficiently priced in the expected risks? Now that equities have lost a fifth of their value since the start of the year, are they more or less attractive? Is credit pricing in a sufficient level of defaults, making this an attractive point to add to positions? Or should investors seek diversification from these asset classes in anticipation of further negative returns to come? In short, should you buy, should you sell, or should you hide?
How do investors manage their risk?
The quest for real diversification has begun and has been a driving force behind investors’ growing interest in alternatives in recent times. Investors who previously relied heavily on traditional equity/bond models (like 60:40) have found themselves increasingly looking towards private markets and real assets, which are often quite illiquid, as they seek to manage inflation and rising rates’ consequent impact on traditional asset markets.
There are two problems we see with illiquid alternatives at present, such as private equity, real estate, venture capital, etc:
- Firstly, they have yet to mark down. With stocks and bonds down so much, it has artificially inflated the proportion of their intended allocation to private investments. This can give the illusion of resilience. However, when private assets mark down, investors might realise that they are not as diversifying as their infrequent pricing has led them to believe.
- Consequently, if investors realise that these assets are not as diversified as they originally thought, they might find they struggle to sell them to find real diversification.
This is where liquid alternatives can prove to be attractive. Different types of liquid alternatives produce structurally different alphas, offering different kinds of diversification, with independent sources of risk, and if structured correctly, can exhibit little correlation to stocks and bonds, with liquidity as needed.
As we move further into the second half of 2022, we believe economic and market conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. With a strong inflationary backdrop for economies and markets, we see this as an attractive opportunity for trend-following strategies. Inflation is effectively autocorrelation in prices – something that trend-following strategies are specifically designed to capture.
Alternatives are a constantly evolving part of the investment industry, and new ideas or opportunities are implicit in the growth of the alternatives universe. It can be well worth the effort to consider the potential role that alternatives can play in a balanced portfolio in such uncertain times.
See alternatives in a different light
Typically, alternative allocations are regarded as satellite investments within a portfolio predominantly exposed to traditional equity and fixed income volatility. However, by leaving alternatives as a solely peripheral investment, the strong diversification that alternatives can offer can realistically only help to mitigate the risks presented by a core allocation to equities and bonds. It is likely a more significant allocation would be required to achieve stronger diversification benefits.
Diversificatie garandeert geen winst. Ook neemt diversificatie het risico op beleggingsverliezen niet weg.
Aandelen brengen risico's met zich mee, waaronder marktrisico. Rendementen fluctueren in reactie op ontwikkelingen bij de emittent en in de politieke en economische situatie.
Buitenlandse effecten zijn vatbaar voor bijkomende risico's, zoals valutaschommelingen, politieke en economische onzekerheid, hogere volatiliteit, lagere liquiditeit en afwijkende financiële en informatiegerelateerde rapporteringsstandaarden. Al die werkingen worden versterkt in groeimarkten.
Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate, inflation, credit and default risk. The bond market is volatile. As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if an issuer fails to make timely payments or its credit strength weakens.
Dit zijn de visies van de auteur op het moment van publicatie en die kunnen afwijken van de visies van andere personen of teams bij Janus Henderson Investors. De genoemde effecten, fondsen, sectoren en indices in dit artikel vormen geen (deel van een) aanbod of verzoek om die effecten te kopen of te verkopen.
Resultaten uit het verleden geven geen indicatie over toekomstige rendementen. Alle performancegegevens omvatten inkomsten- en kapitaalwinsten of verliezen maar geen doorlopende kosten en andere fondsuitgaven.
De informatie in dit artikel mag niet worden beschouwd als een beleggingsadvies.