Multisectorale vastrentend: optimistisch over spread carry

As investors consider their fixed income positioning for 2026, we believe current yields offer an attractive entry point to the multi-sector fixed income category. Various spread sectors exhibit compelling relative value opportunities and are supported by a constructive macro backdrop and monetary policy environment.

1. Macro backdrop

We expect the overall macroeconomic environment to continue to be supportive of current spread levels. We anticipate U.S. economic growth will remain positive, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at about 2.0% in 2026.

While some industries are entering 2026 on late-cycle footing, resilient spending from higher-end consumers and corporate profitability gains from artificial intelligence (AI) implementation should continue to underpin a resilient U.S. economy. Additionally, parabolic increases in AI-driven investment in chips and data centers will likely provide fuel for sustained economic growth, as shown in Exhibit 1.

While tariff-related uncertainty, immigration reform, and geopolitical tensions have been key risks in 2025, we expect their effects to be less pronounced in 2026. Importantly, we believe any lingering negative impacts from these risks should be countered by the positive effects of tax reform within the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), much of which takes effect in 2026. Other notable contributors to U.S. GDP growth and overall sentiment may include North America hosting the FIFA World Cup 2026 and celebrations surrounding the 250^th anniversary of U.S. independence.

Despite seeing disinflationary progress – especially within oil prices and the critical housing component – we think inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target due to upward pressure from delayed tariff impacts and sticky services prices. We expect inflation to remain in the 2.6%-3.0% range.

2. Monetary policy and rates

Given our view that inflation will remain sticky, we think investors may be best positioned on the short end of the yield curve, where we believe one can take advantage of further curve steepening.

In our view, this positioning may also better shield portfolios from increases in term premiums on the long end due to potential concerns surrounding Fed independence, as well as large and continued fiscal deficit spending, with the Fed seemingly willing to let inflation run higher than target.

The U.S. central bank is walking a fine line on easing to support a softening labor market while guarding against a resurgence in inflation. With September’s delayed jobs report beating expectations, the likelihood of a cut at the December meeting has become less certain.

Notwithstanding uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s December decision, the market is pricing in at least three cuts by the end of 2026 (which would bring the federal funds rate down to the 3.25%–3.50% range). We expect the yield curve to steepen, with front-end rates declining and long-end yields staying rangebound amid debt overhang and inflation concerns, as shown in Exhibit 2.

Other positive drivers for fixed income markets include the Fed ending its quantitative tightening (QT) program, together with the likelihood that the “Fed put” is firmly back in place. If we see weakness in the economy, we think the central bank will ease aggressively, which would be supportive of spreads.

Another interesting phenomenon that may continue to take shape in 2026 is that unemployment could remain weak while the growth outlook remains strong. With tighter immigration policy, the labor market can ostensibly sustain equilibrium with a much lower number of jobs created. Meanwhile AI productivity improvements could lead to higher unemployment coupled with higher economic growth.

We believe this dynamic will be supportive of continued Fed cuts, while a lower policy rate should benefit cyclical sectors and business creation.

3. Fixed income themes and positioning

• Bullish on credit spread carry: While credit spreads are hovering around their cyclical tight levels, we believe current valuations are supported by robust corporate profitability, expected Fed easing, and economic growth, fueled in part by AI-driven investments.
• Real yields remain firmly positive: Despite spreads trading at historically tight levels, overall real yields remain above 1.25%, providing a solid foundation for positive inflation-adjusted returns for bond investors.

• Securitized spreads continue to look attractive relative to corporates: Attractive valuations and strong credit quality within securitized sectors support our positive view on securitized credit, and ties into the theme of maximizing carry per unit of risk.
• Active management and flexibility are paramount: With policy uncertainty and uneven growth, a dynamic, diversified approach is essential. Volatility is likely to create opportunities across sectors and geographies. Maximizing carry per unit of risk will be key, while also seeking out idiosyncratic opportunities to add value.

Samengevat

U.S. growth and AI-driven investment should support a constructive macro backdrop, while sticky inflation and expected Fed cuts point to a steeper yield curve. In our view, attractive opportunities in credit and securitized sectors, combined with positive real yields, make active management essential for 2026.

Belangrijke informatie

Actively managed investment portfolios are subject to the risk that the investment strategies and research process employed may fail to produce the intended results. Accordingly, a portfolio may underperform its benchmark index or other investment products with similar investment objectives.

Vastrentende effecten zijn onderhevig aan het rente-, inflatie-, krediet- en wanbetalingsrisico. De obligatiemarkt is volatiel. Als de rentes stijgen, dalen de obligatiekoersen meestal en vice versa. Terugbetaling van de hoofdsom is niet gegarandeerd, en de koersen kunnen dalen als een emittent zijn betalingsverplichtingen niet tijdig nakomt of wanneer zijn kredietwaardigheid afneemt.

Diversificatie garandeert geen winst. Ook neemt diversificatie het risico op beleggingsverliezen niet weg.

Gesecuritiseerde producten, zoals door een hypotheek of door activa gedekte effecten, zijn gevoeliger voor renteveranderingen, hebben een verlengings- en vervroegde-aflossingsrisico en zijn onderhevig aan meer krediet-, waarderings- en liquiditeitsrisico's dan andere vastrentende effecten.

Amerikaanse staatsobligaties zijn directe schuldverplichtingen die zijn uitgegeven door de Amerikaanse overheid. Bij staatsobligaties is de belegger schuldeiser van de overheid. Schatkistpromesses en staatsobligaties worden gewaarborgd door het vertrouwen en het krediet van de overheid van de Verenigde Staten, worden over het algemeen beschouwd als vrij van kredietrisico en hebben doorgaans een lagere rentevoet dan andere effecten.