Is UK labour market resilience about to crumble?

door Simon Ward

3 dagen geleden

Last week’s UK labour market report was superficially strong but cracks are appearing under the surface. A stalling of employment and a rise in unemployment would probably put the MPC’s rate-hiking plans on indefinite hold.

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Global money trends still downbeat

door Simon Ward

1 week geleden

​Global monetary trends weakened sharply in late 2017 / early 2018 and have yet to recover convincingly, arguing for maintaining a below-consensus forecast for economic growth.

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Quick view:  Bank of England’s thesis challenged by recent data

door Thomas O'Mahony

2 weken geleden

The Bank of England left its benchmark Bank Rate at 0.5% today as widely anticipated, while only a month ago, markets were positioning for a hike. Thomas O’Mahony, Portfolio Manager, explains what changed and where next for rates in the UK.

 
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Euroland "basic balance" deterioration suggesting weaker euro

door Simon Ward

2 weken geleden

​Euro appreciation in 2017 was underpinned by a strengthening of the Euroland basic balance of payments position. The basic balance has deteriorated recently and credit / money trends suggest further weakness. Downside risk for the currency, therefore, has increased.

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UK monetary trends: weakness extends

door Simon Ward

3 weken geleden

​Before Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s latest handbrake turn, the expectation here was that the MPC would raise interest rates again in May, based on prior “guidance” and strong labour market data. Such a move, however, was viewed as dangerous against a backdrop of weakening monetary trends.

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Strategic Fixed Income: disruptive technology and the bond angle

door Rebecca Young

1 maand geleden
Rebecca Young, Portfolio Manager within Strategic Fixed Income, highlights interesting start-up businesses that presented at a recent disruptive technology conference and explains why bond managers should take note. She also explains why disruption ties in to the team’s long term deflationary view.
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Global leading indicators confirming monetary slowdown signal

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​The monetary forecast of a global economic slowdown over the remainder of 2018 is receiving confirmation from shorter-term non-monetary leading indicators.

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Quick view: Three P’s at the ECB meeting

door Thomas O'Mahony

1 maand geleden

The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday 26 April produced no concrete action as both policy and temperament remained unchanged. Thomas O’Mahony, Portfolio Manager, explains why the meeting was no game-changer for the markets.

 
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Will Chinese policy easing work?

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​Satisfactory Chinese activity numbers for the first quarter / March are consistent with monetary trends in mid-2017. Subsequent monetary weakness, which continued in March, suggests a significant slowdown over the remainder of 2018. The authorities appear to be shifting tack to head off economic weakness. Late cycle policy easing can prove counter-productive by boosting prices, thereby exerting additional downward pressure on real money trends.​

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UK MPC on course for risky rate hike

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​UK labour market statistics confirm stronger wage cost pressures and suggest that the MPC will press ahead with another interest rate increase next month. The view here remains that the Committee should hold fire because of worryingly weak monetary trends.

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Are global money trends stabilising?

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​A further fall in global real narrow money expansion in early 2018 suggests that a recent slowdown in economic activity will be sustained until late in the year, allowing for the typical nine-month lead. ​

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Value perspective: what do investors get when they buy Europe?

door Nick Sheridan

1 maand geleden
In this video update, European equities manager Nick Sheridan gives his thoughts on what investors should be looking at when considering an investment in European equities, and why he believes that higher volatility provides an opportunity for value-focused investors.
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Is higher volatility a boost for quality growth in Europe?

door James Ross, Tim Stevenson

1 maand geleden
Tim Stevenson and James Ross, Co-Managers of the Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund, look at the impact of cyclicality on quality growth strategies, assessing some recent economic indicators, and turn their thoughts to what higher market volatility might mean for exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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Tim & Jamie European investors day

door James Ross, Tim Stevenson

1 maand geleden

Stuff​

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G7 yield curve echoing monetary slowdown signal

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​The assessment here that the global economy has entered a slowdown phase likely to last through late 2018 (at least) rests primarily on weaker monetary trends since mid-2017. The slope of the G7 yield curve – another longer leading indicator with a respectable historical record – is consistent with the monetary message.​

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A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​Our last quarterly commentary noted that global narrow money trends had weakened significantly during the second half of 2017, suggesting that t​he economy would lose momentum in 2018 while the liquidity backdrop for markets was no longer favourable. Money trends softened further in early 2018, adding to our concerns. It is possible that US and Chinese money data will rebound over coming months, reflecting, respectively, the lagged impact of tax cuts and policy easing. A defensive investment stance, however, is recommended until such a recovery is confirmed.

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Is China starting to ease?

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Previous posts (e.g. here) suggested that weaker economic growth and a cooling of inflationary pressures would prompt the Chinese authorities to take steps to ease monetary conditions in mid-2018. A recent fall in interbank rates could be an early indication that a policy shift is under way.

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UK monetary alarm bells ringing louder

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​UK monetary trends continued to weaken in February, suggesting deteriorating economic prospects and arguing for the MPC to hold off on plans to raise interest rates.​

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Secured Loans Insight: European loans in perspective

door David Milward, Elissa Johnson

2 maanden geleden

​In this edition of the Secured Loans Insight, David Milward, Head of Secured Loans, and Elissa Johnson, Director of Loans, explain why in a world of uninspiring total return forecasts for most  areas of fixed income, loans continue to represent an attractive alternative.

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Internal change - the catalyst for value in European smaller caps

door Ollie Beckett

2 maanden geleden
Ollie Beckett, Associate Director of Pan European Smaller Companies at Janus Henderson, gives a quick view on what factors investors should keep in mind when considering European equities at present, and where he is finding the best opportunities.
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