Inflation: is that it?

door John Pattullo

2 dagen geleden
John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, discusses the range of factors, which in his opinion, indicate that current inflation is much more cyclical than structural.
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Chinese money trends signalling further slowdown

door Simon Ward

1 week geleden

​Weak Chinese December money and credit numbers signal that policy easing has yet to translate into an improvement in economic prospects.

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Quick view: hard to see a straight path to a final Brexit deal

door Bethany Payne

1 week geleden

In an historic defeat for the UK government, the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal was rejected by a margin of 432 to 202 on 15 January 2019. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, shares her thoughts on the outcome of the vote.

 
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US C&I loan surge signalling stocks cycle downswing

door Simon Ward

1 week geleden

​A surge in US banks’ commercial and industrial (C&I) loans in late 2018 supports the view here that the stockbuilding cycle has peaked and will act as a drag on GDP growth in 2019.

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A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

door Simon Ward

2 weken geleden

​In late 2016, the forecasting approach employed here – relying on monetary and cycle analysis – signalled that the global economy would grow strongly in 2017. A year ago, it suggested that a significant slowdown would unfold during 2018. The current message is that this slowdown is likely to extend and deepen, at least through mid-2019. A recovery in momentum is possible during the second half of the year but such a scenario requires confirmation from stronger monetary trends in early 2019.

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Euroland money numbers: mixed signals

door Simon Ward

3 weken geleden

Euroland monetary trends have stabilised since mid-2018, suggesting weak GDP growth in the first half of 2019 but no further slowdown. The sectoral breakdown of the latest numbers, however, is troubling: corporate narrow money trends have deteriorated, particularly in Germany, signalling likely business retrenchment.

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Simple forecasting rule giving negative signal for UK economic prospects

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden
A simple forecasting rule based on money growth and share prices suggests that 2019 will be a “bad” year for the UK economy – even if a no deal Brexit is avoided.
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Euroland PMIs: stabilisation ahead?

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​A post in February suggested that the Euroland manufacturing PMI, then still strong at 58-59, would fall towards the 50 level by mid-2018. The decline has taken longer than expected but the PMI eased further to 51.4 in December (with assistance from the  gilets jaunes). The composite manufacturing / services output index slid to 51.3, a four-year low. What now?


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QE is dead, long live enhanced forward guidance and reinvestments

door Andrew Mulliner

1 maand geleden

​Andrew Mulliner, portfolio manager within the Global Bonds team, reveals an inconsistency within the European Central Bank’s decision to end quantitative easing.

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Flexibility in a low yield world

door Andrew Mulliner

1 maand geleden
Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager within Global Bonds shares his views on where we are in the economic cycle, pointing out that the rising rates environment is not a global phenomenon.
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Chinese money trends still weak, dashing reflation hope

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

Chinese November money and credit numbers were disappointing for economic optimists, suggesting that policy easing is still failing to gain traction.

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US money weakness extending to household sector

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

US narrow money trends remain worryingly weak, suggesting that monetary policy is already restrictive and a significant economic slowdown lies immediately ahead.

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European video outlook: investor positioning will matter in 2019

door John Bennett

1 maand geleden
Is it a good time to look at Europe for bargains? In this video, John Bennett, Director of European Equities at Janus Henderson, considers the case for active management in Europe in 2019. He also discusses why he thinks investors should remember the importance of ‘quaint’, old-fashioned metrics like valuation, cash flow and balance sheets.
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Strategic Fixed Income: visible signs of a late-cycle world

door Jenna Barnard, John Pattullo

1 maand geleden
A concoction of elements all point to the fact that the global economy is now definitively in the late-cycle stage, while narrative fallacies flourish in the markets. 
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Thoughts on US / Chinese yield curve signals

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

Monetary trends and cycle analysis have been suggesting a cautious view of global economic and equity market prospects. An argument for remaining neutrally-positioned or overweight in equities and other risk assets at present runs as follows.

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Is Europe an undervalued prospect for long-term growth?

door James Ross, Tim Stevenson

2 maanden geleden

​Tim Stevenson and James Ross, Co-Managers on the Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund, reflect on the prospects for European equities in 2019, at a time of political uncertainty and slowing economic growth. Tim addresses his upcoming retirement, while James looks at the fund’s strategic positioning, in the search for high-quality/high-return businesses capable of generating higher returns in future.

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Global economic prospects still dimming

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden
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Euroland / UK money trends signalling sluggish outlook

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

Euroland GDP rose by 0.2% in the third quarter and PMI survey compiler IHS Markit claims that November flash results released last week are consistent with a fourth-quarter increase of 0.3%. Second-half growth, therefore, may have averaged 0.25% per quarter, below the ECB staff’s September central forecast of 0.4%.​

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Strategic Fixed Income: is het einde van de cyclus al bereikt?

door Jenna Barnard, John Pattullo

2 maanden geleden
Nu de markten eindelijk accepteren dat de economieën zich in een laatcyclisch stadium bevinden, delen John Pattullo en Jenna Barnard, samen verantwoordelijk voor Strategic Fixed Income, hun gedachten over dit onderwerp. Ze gaan in op de kansen en risico’s die dit met zich meebrengt voor 2019.
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Chinese money trends still cautionary

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Chinese money and credit numbers for October were disappointing, signalling that policy easing has yet to gain traction and may need to be stepped up.​

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