Strategic Fixed Income: concoction of stress factors

door John Pattullo

6 dagen geleden
​An unhealthy concoction of factors are creating a classically late-cycle feel in the markets. John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, simplifies the conundrums and shares his views.

(This video was recorded on Tuesday 9 October 2018).

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A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

door Simon Ward

1 week geleden

“Goldilocks” is over. The economic backdrop for markets has been unusually favourable in recent years, with growth mostly solid but not strong enough to produce capacity strains, allowing monetary conditions to remain loose. Now, growth has gone cold but hot labour markets are pushing up wage costs, squeezing profits and causing central banks to turn more hawkish.

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Currency catalysts

door Christopher Diaz

1 week geleden
​Chris Diaz, Co-Head of Global Bonds, sees opportunity for certain currencies to recover over the next three to 12 months on a likelihood that central banks will raise interest rates to control growth and inflation.

This video was recorded in early September 2018.
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Why have Treasury yields risen?

door Simon Ward

1 week geleden

​The long-standing forecast here has been for global economic momentum – as measured by the six-month rate of change of industrial output in the G7 economies and seven large emerging economies – to fall into late 2018 and remain weak in early 2019. Incoming news is consistent with this forecast.

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Notice of Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund team update

door 

2 weken geleden

​James Ross is set to become sole manager of the Janus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund

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UK money trends: recovery not yet convincing

door Simon Ward

2 weken geleden

​UK monetary trends are less negative than in early 2018 but still suggest a lacklustre economic outlook. The August rate hike, moreover, could serve to abort the monetary recovery.​

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Euroland money trends still cautionary

door Simon Ward

3 weken geleden

​Euroland monetary trends have stabilised since the spring but continue to suggest a weak economic outlook – GDP may rise at a 1.0-1.5% annualised pace through early 2019 versus ECB / consensus expectations of about 1.75%. Slower growth may feed through to a stabilisation or slight rise in unemployment, complicating the ECB’s exit strategy.​

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US corporate money slowing - business investment to disappoint?

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

US second-quarter financial accounts released yesterday provide additional information about recent monetary trends. Business money trends have weakened significantly despite tax cuts and foreign profits repatriation, consistent with an expected economic slowdown through early 2019.​

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UK inflation resilience consistent with past monetary strength

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

UK consumer price inflation rebounded to 2.7% in August, well above a consensus estimate of 2.4% and suggesting an overshoot of the 2.48% forecast for the third quarter in the August Inflation Report. Core as well as headline inflation pushed higher – see first chart*. Hikes in household energy bills may contribute to the headline rate remaining at around 2.5% in the fourth quarter, rather than falling to 2.29%, as predicted in the Report.​

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Chinese money trends still weakening - policy easing too little / late?

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​Chinese August money numbers were surprisingly weak, suggesting that the economy will continue to lose momentum into early 2019, despite a recent shift towards policy easing.

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Economic base-case: spreading slowdown & wage squeeze on profits

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

A post in January suggested that financial markets would face challenges in 2018 from a spring slowdown in the global economy and a pick-up in wage pressures in lagged response to labour market tightening.

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How will ongoing interest rate divergence impact bond markets?

door Jenna Barnard

1 maand geleden
Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains how the persistence of interest rate divergence remains central to the team’s thinking on the outlook for the bond markets.
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Monetary / leading indicator signals still negative

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​Near-complete July monetary data confirm an estimate in a previous post that six-month growth of real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) narrow money growth in the G7 economies and seven large emerging economies fell to its lowest level since February – see first chart.​

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Euroland money trends suggesting sub-consensus GDP growth

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Euro area July money numbers were disappointing, suggesting that GDP growth will stick at its recent slower pace – contrary to consensus hopes that first-half weakening represented a temporary “soft patch”.​

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Business investment: as good as it gets?

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Optimists expect strong growth of business investment to relieve capacity strains and allow the global economic upswing to continue for several more years. The view here, by contrast, is that investment strength may be peaking ahead of weakness in 2019-20.

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Equities / cash switching rules: an update

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Various posts in recent years discussed two rules for switching between global equities and US dollar cash based on monetary signals. One or other of the rules has recommended cash since end-January, suggesting that a cautious i​nvestment strategy remains warranted.​

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UK Inflation Report: monetary muddle

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Hallelujah! The August Inflation Report included a box discussing recent monetary developments. The analysis, however, is flawed.​​

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Quick view: hawkish BoE at odds with market?

door Bethany Payne

2 maanden geleden

The Bank of England (BoE) raised rates by 25 basis points at today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, retaining its commitment for further gradual and limited increases. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, shares her thoughts on the outcome of the meeting. 

 
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OECD leading indicator preview: further weakness

door Simon Ward

3 maanden geleden

​The central expectation here, based on monetary trends, is that global economic momentum will continue to weaken into the fourth quarter of 2018 before reviving slightly into early 2019 – see previous ​post. The OECD’s composite leading indicators, which in most cases exclude money, are giving stronger support for​ the forecast of a near-term further economic slowdown.​

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No monetary case for UK rate hike

door Simon Ward

3 maanden geleden

​UK monetary trends are showing signs of recovery but remain weak, arguing against the rate hike that the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to deliver this week.

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