Regionale focus: Pan-Europa

Equities / cash switching rules: an update

door Simon Ward

3 dagen geleden

​Various posts in recent years discussed two rules for switching between global equities and US dollar cash based on monetary signals. One or other of the rules has recommended cash since end-January, suggesting that a cautious i​nvestment strategy remains warranted.​

meer
UK Inflation Report: monetary muddle

door Simon Ward

2 weken geleden

​Hallelujah! The August Inflation Report included a box discussing recent monetary developments. The analysis, however, is flawed.​​

meer
Quick view: hawkish BoE at odds with market?

door Bethany Payne

3 weken geleden

The Bank of England (BoE) raised rates by 25 basis points at today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, retaining its commitment for further gradual and limited increases. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, shares her thoughts on the outcome of the meeting. 

 
meer
OECD leading indicator preview: further weakness

door Simon Ward

3 weken geleden

​The central expectation here, based on monetary trends, is that global economic momentum will continue to weaken into the fourth quarter of 2018 before reviving slightly into early 2019 – see previous ​post. The OECD’s composite leading indicators, which in most cases exclude money, are giving stronger support for​ the forecast of a near-term further economic slowdown.​

meer
No monetary case for UK rate hike

door Simon Ward

3 weken geleden

​UK monetary trends are showing signs of recovery but remain weak, arguing against the rate hike that the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to deliver this week.

meer
Euroland money trends steady, Italy / Greece stronger

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​The “surprise” weakening of Euroland economic growth in the first half of 2018 was foreshadowed by a monetary slowdown in late 2017. Monetary trends have stabilised since early 2018, suggesting that economic expansion will continue at around its recent pace through early 2019 – GDP may rise at a 1.25-1.5% annualised rate, below ECB and consensus forecasts of 1.75-2.0%. Country narrow money details show weakness in France, surprising resilience in Italy and growing strength in Greece.​

meer
Global monetary update: US slowdown ahead?

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​Global narrow money trends have stabilised since early 2018 but continue to signal a weak economic outlook. US narrow money has stagnated in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms, suggesting that the US economy will lose momentum during the second half of the year, a forecast supported by a recent fall in the OECD’s US composite leading indicator (which excludes money).

meer
A "monetarist" perspective on current equity markets

door Simon Ward

1 maand geleden

​Global monetary trends have stabilised but remain weak, suggesting slow economic growth and an unpromising backdrop for equities and other risk assets, warranting maintaining a cautious investment stance.

meer
UK data mixed, money trends still soft

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

UK monetary trends have stabilised but remain weak, suggesting continued sub-par economic expansion. The monetary slowdown has been reflected in a significant fall in nominal GDP growth, the current level of which is below that consistent with achievement of the 2% inflation target over the medium term. The view here remains that the MPC should wait for a rebound in money growth before considering a further rate hike.​

meer
Euroland money data slightly better, trends still subdued

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

Euroland monetary trends have stabilised, suggesting that economic growth will be sustained at its recent slower pace through late 2018. The ECB / consensus forecast that GDP will expand at a 1.75-2% annualised rate appears over-optimistic. Real narrow money growth has fallen in Italy but is only slightly lower than in the other major economies, although a further slowdown is likely.​

meer
Tijd om weer meer aandacht te schenken aan Europa?

door Tim Stevenson

2 maanden geleden

Manager Europese aandelen Tim Stevenson pleit voor Europese aandelen als langetermijnbelegging, ondanks de aanhoudende geopolitieke onzekerheid. Deze onzekerheid heeft namelijk gevolgen voor het sentiment ten aanzien van bedrijven die in deze regio zijn gevestigd.

meer
Why is US economic news holding up?

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Global economic activity news has surprised negatively since March, with the Citigroup G10 composite index recently reaching its lowest level since 2012 – see first chart. This is consistent with the “monetarist” view that global economic momentum would peak in early 2018 and soften into the second half of the year.

meer
Quick view: Bank of England’s new hawkish tilt

door Bethany Payne

2 maanden geleden

The Bank of England (BoE) kept the Bank Rate steady at 0.5% at today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting but surprised the markets by adopting a more hawkish stance. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, explains what changed and the implications of the decision.

 
meer
Strategic Fixed Income — the turn of the global liquidity cycle

door Jenna Barnard

2 maanden geleden
Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains the team’s thinking on the bond markets, which revolves around the themes of interest rate divergence and US dollar strength.
meer
Global industrial activity cooling, money trends stable

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

Global six-month industrial output growth appears to have fallen sharply in May, consistent with the long-standing forecast here, based on monetary trends, of an economic slowdown starting around spring 2018.

meer
Chinese economy slowing, signals mixed

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

Chinese monetary trends remain worrying but non-monetary leading indicators are giving a more hopeful message for economic prospects. A further slowdown is expected over the remainder of 2018 but weakness may be contained.​​

meer
Quick view: ECB maintains flexibility and optionality

door Thomas O'Mahony

2 maanden geleden

 The European Central Bank (ECB) updated its guidance on both its asset purchase programme (APP) and interest rates at today’s meeting of the Governing Council in Riga. Thomas O’Mahony, Portfolio Manager, explains what changed and the reasons behind the decision. 

meer
Is the MSCI EM index fit for purpose?

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​The characteristics of the MSCI emerging markets (EM) equities index have changed significantly in recent decades, raising questions about its suitability as a benchmark for EM investing.​

meer
Are the profits / investment cycles peaking?

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

​Underlying profits growth in the G7 economies cooled in the first quarter of 2018 and is modest by historical standards, casting doubt on expectations of economic strength based on a further pick-up in business investment.​​

meer
Euroland GDP details downbeat

door Simon Ward

2 maanden geleden

post in March argued against consensus positivity about Euroland economic prospects, noting that domestic final demand had already slowed while net export strength was likely to fade as a result of euro appreciation and falling global momentum. GDP expenditure details for the first quarter released today are consistent with this assessment.​​

meer

Attentie