Labour market watch: US / UK weakness

11-6-2019

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​Incoming news remains mostly supportive of the view here that economic weakness is spreading to labour markets.

US non-farm payrolls undershot expectations in May but the series is volatile, arguing for smoothing data over several months. Three-month growth of a three-month moving average of private payrolls fell further to the bottom of the range of recent years, with weakness confirmed by aggregate hours worked – see first chart.


Today’s UK labour market report, meanwhile, reported a fourth successive monthly decline in May in the stock of vacancies, which leads employees in employment. The employees series recovered in April but remained below a February peak – second chart*.


A rebound in annual growth of private sector regular pay to 3.8% in April partly reflected a base effect, with three-month growth of a three-month moving average subsiding further – third chart.


Last week’s news of a further fall in the Euroland unemployment rate from 7.7% to 7.6% in April was against the global trend of softer data. The decline was driven by a drop from 14.0% to 13.8% in Spain, while rates in Germany, France and Italy were unchanged on the month – fourth chart. As previously noted, German registered unemployment rose in May, even after adjusting for a reporting change distortion, while vacancies fell for a second month.


Dit zijn de visies van de auteur op het moment van publicatie en die kunnen afwijken van de visies van andere personen of teams bij Janus Henderson Investors. De genoemde effecten, fondsen, sectoren en indices in dit artikel vormen geen (deel van een) aanbod of verzoek om die effecten te kopen of te verkopen.

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