Tell Tail Signs: April 2019 – Finally, some signs of inflation…

21/05/2019

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Janus Henderson’s US-based Multi-Asset Solutions Team present their latest Tail Risk Report, using options market prices to infer expected tail gains and losses for each asset class. In April, the options-based market signals finally started to show signs of inflation and the upward trend of expected inflation continues to rise.

Key takeaways:

  • While the options-based market signals do not point to imminent breakout inflation, they do forewarn us to pay closer attention to inflation risk, which is just above normal levels today.
  • With the options market beginning to price in inflation risk, inflation-sensitive assets are the most attractive asset class in relation to growth assets and capital preservation assets.
  • Ashwin believes that the greatest opportunities lie in Australia, Hong Kong, India and Germany, with European banks as some of the most attractive equity investments.


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Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

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