Fed signals additional tightening to come

21/09/2017

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Darrell Watters, Head of US Fundamental Fixed Income and fixed income portfolio manager, comments on the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement and shares his views on future rate rises.

This article was first published on 20 September 2017.
 
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) shared details of its balance sheet contraction on Wednesday, indicating the process would start in October. The central bank left the federal funds target range unchanged at 1.0% to 1.25% but indicated that the ongoing strength of the economy warrants additional rate rises.
 
Is the party over?
 
The Fed has acted as a backstop for the economy since 2008, growing its portfolio of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to approximately $4.5tn. We believe plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet have been well telegraphed and are likely to have minimal market impact. Proceeds will be reinvested as they exceed a set of rising caps, starting at $6 billion for Treasuries and $4 billion for mortgages. This approach suggests that tapering will occur at a glacial pace.
 
Furthermore, if the economy starts to sour, the Fed can step back in and underpin markets. By mid-October, however, the Fed’s board of governors will have four empty seats, and Janet Yellen’s term as Fed Chair expires in January. Market participants should be wary of a changing of the guard. A new board composition could accelerate changes in policy and have unintended effects on markets.
 
Markets may be underestimating the Fed
 
Prior to Wednesday’s commentary, market participants put the chance of another 2017 interest rate hike at just over 50%, according to Fed Fund Futures. Approximately two increases were priced in through 2019. The Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot survey suggests that the Fed could tighten approximately seven more times in the same period. While we believe that the lack of inflation will sustain a ‘lower-for-longer’ interest rate environment, we are concerned that the market has gone too far in underestimating the Fed’s notion to raise interest rates, particularly if inflationary pressures intensify.
 
The Fed will hike as gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation allow, in order to create a cushion in the event the economy rolls over. The tightening cycle will remain gradual to protect the consumer – the largest engine of the economy – but we expect the number of forthcoming rate increases to fall between the market and the Fed’s expectations.
 
August data showed inflation is progressing toward the Fed’s goal of 2%. One or two more strong inflation prints will set the stage for an additional rate hike in the coming months, most likely in December or early 2018. Modestly higher gas prices, along with recovering crude oil prices, continued improvement in the labour picture and a weaker dollar are all tailwinds for a higher Fed Fund rate. While the inflation pickup is unlikely to be sustainable, these factors could jolt the bond market.
 
In the months ahead, we anticipate Treasury yields will be generally range bound, but will bump up against the higher end of that range. In our view the 5-year note faces the most risk due to its close ties to Fed policy, while the yield on the 10-year note could reach 2.5%.
 

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

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Janus Henderson Balanced Fund

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All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Flexible Income Fund

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All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson High Yield Fund

For institutional/ sophisticated investors / accredited investors qualified distributors use only.

All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund endeavours to reduce risk by investing in bonds and debt securities from a wide variety of issuers and different repayment periods. However, the Fund may be less diversified than other investment products and suffer proportionately higher loss should a particular investment decline in value, due to its concentration in high yield securities.
  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson US Short-Term Bond Fund

For institutional/ sophisticated investors / accredited investors qualified distributors use only.

All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

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