Incremental return opportunities for credit in 2018

22/11/2017

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What lessons have you learned from 2017?
2017 highlighted that even as central banks become less accommodative, their dovish approaches can continue to suppress rates. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has emphasised tapering without the tantrum, diligently telegraphing its plans to gradually normalise its balance sheet. Additionally, the premise of the ‘Fed put’ — its willingness to reverse course if warranted — has capped US Treasury yields, even as it raises interest rates. Similarly, the European Central Bank plans to reduce asset purchases, but is prepared to extend the length of its quantitative easing programme. And despite the Bank of England’s recent rate hike, its proposed path of future hikes remains dovish. These cautious methods are sustaining range bound yields.


What are the key themes likely to shape the markets in which you invest in 2018 and how is this likely to impact portfolio positioning?

Lower for longer:
the nomination of Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair portends that the Fed will maintain its measured approach to raising interest rates and a gradual balance sheet unwind. Further, the Fed’s willingness to step back in, should economic conditions deteriorate, suggests that any monetary tightening in 2018 will minimally impact Treasuries. Lower for longer yields in Europe will continue to foster demand for US rates, further limiting upward movement in Treasury yields. Within our core portfolios, we intend to maintain duration in line with that of the benchmark, although we will tactically adjust duration as opportunities to add value present themselves.

As central banks seek to taper without the tantrum, range-bound rates and low volatility should continue to drive investors’ reach for yield and demand for other fixed income asset classes, including corporate credit.

US tax reform: we are actively seeking opportunities in entities poised to benefit from a tax overhaul. If passed, reform features including a drop in the corporate tax rate, the allowance for immediate expensing of capital expenditures and incentives for companies to repatriate capital would bolster corporate credit. These would likely boost free cash flow and marginally reduce the need for corporate debt issuance. The resulting reprieve from elevated issuance should push valuations higher in this yield starved environment. Limitations on interest deductibility could, however, have negative implications for highly levered, capital intensive businesses.  

Disruption: A wide range of industries are experiencing disruption, which is pressuring profit pools and forcing management teams into action. Many issuers are making acquisitions to diversify their business models and increase scale. Amazon, in particular, is disrupting multiple sectors including technology, retail, supermarkets, media and potentially, health care. The ‘Amazon effect’ of lower prices is even disrupting inflation. The proliferation of digital streaming services is another disruptor, impeding subscriber growth for cable and video providers and forcing many investment grade media companies to consolidate. In energy, increasing efficiencies in the extraction of shale oil and gas is pressuring issuers to develop strategies that can succeed amid lower energy prices. We are evaluating these and other disruptions, and digging into company fundamentals to identify which issuers are prepared to adapt and which we are better off avoiding.


Where do you currently see the risks within your asset class and where are the most compelling opportunities?
Strong risk market returns in 2017 have stretched valuations across most spread products. However, if policymakers can successfully pivot to a gradual normalisation of monetary policy and an increase in fiscal stimulus, we believe credit will continue to provide incremental return opportunities. The key will be balancing offense with capital preservation, as additional returns are likely to come from carry rather than the spread tightening of recent years.

Investment grade and crossover issuers that stand to benefit from constructive earnings trends and aspects of tax reform, including technology issuers likely to benefit from the repatriation of capital, are particularly attractive. Security selection will be critical. However, successfully navigating structural industry changes will also require avoiding issuers susceptible to disruption risks. The necessary evolution of business strategy to combat disruption will likely result in sustained debt funded consolidation activity. While we seek to avoid the downside prior to consolidation, entities committed to deleveraging post transaction often offer strong risk adjusted opportunities.

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

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Important information

Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.

Janus Henderson Balanced Fund

For institutional/ sophisticated investors / accredited investors qualified distributors use only.

All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Flexible Income Fund

For institutional/ sophisticated investors / accredited investors qualified distributors use only.

All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson High Yield Fund

For institutional/ sophisticated investors / accredited investors qualified distributors use only.

All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund endeavours to reduce risk by investing in bonds and debt securities from a wide variety of issuers and different repayment periods. However, the Fund may be less diversified than other investment products and suffer proportionately higher loss should a particular investment decline in value, due to its concentration in high yield securities.
  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson US Short-Term Bond Fund

For institutional/ sophisticated investors / accredited investors qualified distributors use only.

All content in this document is for information or general use only and is not specific to any individual client requirements. The information contained in this document is referential and may not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation or investment advice, nor should be taken as a basis to take (or stop taking) any decision.

Janus Henderson Capital Funds Plc is a UCITS established under Irish law, with segregated liability between funds. Investors are warned that they should only make their investments based on the most recent Prospectus which contains information about fees, expenses and risks, which is available from all distributors and paying agents, it should be read carefully. An investment in the fund may not be suitable for all investors and is not available to all investors in all jurisdictions; it is not available to US persons.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The rate of return may vary and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate due to market and foreign exchange movements.  Shares, if redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Janus Henderson Group plc and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this document and do not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments, there are inherent risks that each individual should address.

The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or any circumstances in which its use would be unlawful.

Issued in Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”), authorised and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. Janus Capital International Limited (“JCIL”) is an entity registered and operating under the laws of the United Kingdom and Janus Capital Funds plc. is registered under the legislation of Ireland.

The extract prospectus (edition for Switzerland), the articles of incorporation, the extract annual and semi-annual report, in German, can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd (“FIFS”), Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland, tel: +41 44 206 16 40, fax: +41 44 206 16 41, web: http://www.fifs.ch. The Swiss paying agent is: Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, CH-1204 Geneva. The last share prices can be found on www.fundinfo.com. For Qualified investors, institutional, wholesale client use only. Outside of Switzerland, this document is for professional use only. Not for onward distribution.

This material is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any purpose other than evaluation of a potential investment in Janus Capital International Limited’s products or the procurement of its services by the recipient of this presentation or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this presentation.

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus, Intech and Perkins are registered trademarks of Janus International Holding LLC. © Janus International Holding LLC. For more information or to locate your country’s Janus representative contact information, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

Specific risks

  • The Fund may hold investments denominated in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Fluctuations in exchange rates may expose the Fund to losses independent of investment performance.
  • The Fund uses specialist financial derivative instruments (FDI) that can multiply gains and losses significantly in excess of the FDI's original cost, thus significantly increasing risk. We aim to reduce this risk by using a robust risk management process that will aim to limit the maximum potential loss. The use of these instruments involves other risks, in particular, counterparty risk, which is the risk to each party to a contract that the other party will not live up to its contractual obligations.
  • As the Fund may invest in debt securities rated below investment grade, one of the key risk factors for the Fund is risk that an issuer may not repay the debt and relevant interest payments to the Fund. The value of debt securities held in the Fund will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.
  • The value of investments held in the Fund and the income from them may rise or fall. The Fund may not achieve its investment objectives.
  • Some of the securities and currencies in which the Fund invests can be difficult to sell which may lead to fluctuation in the price and may mean that the Fund does not get the price it would like when selling such a security or currency.

Risk rating

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