固定收益透視

我們的固定收益團隊發表季度觀點,以助客戶駕馭各種風險及早著先機。

核心主題(2020年6月)

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環球固定收益主管Jim Cielinski

焦點分析

  • 2019 冠狀病毒病危機對經濟的打擊一如我們預期般嚴重,第二季的經濟增長率可能是有記錄以來最差的季度之一。
  • 然而,市場對變化作出反應,隨著經濟停擺逐步告終,加上當局實施進取的財政和貨幣刺激政策,短期增長和復甦潛力令市況看來與經濟環境脫軌;不過,如果經濟不致再度停擺,當前的市場趨勢亦可理解。
  • 從長線投資者的角度而言,只要經濟重拾增長,我們日後回顧時,或許可以形容這是史上數一數二最嚴重、卻同時是歷時最短的一次衰退。
  • 閱讀以下我們不同投資團隊的觀點,並點擊此鏈結閱讀 Jim 的最新文章《疫情過後: 雙面時代》(英文版).

影片內容(英文版)

Hello, I’m Jim Cielinski. And we’ve almost run out of superlatives to describe the current market and economic environment. But when I think back to when the COVID-19 crisis unfolded in Q1, we were recommending that investors focus on three critical questions and it’s worth revisiting those today. One was, what’s the policy response going to be; two was, what is the likely duration of this shutdown; and three, what was the likely severity of the shutdown?

First of all on policy, so policy makers have panicked and they’re still panicking. We have seen the trifecta of policy, meaning fiscal boost is coming. We’ve had enormous budget deficits opened up, but we’ve also seen on the monetary side in QE, balance sheet expansion is going to exceed $6 trillion by the time this is over. And we overuse the word unprecedented, but this is truly a staggering number. And then third, policy rates in the G7 have hit record low levels. Almost everywhere is approaching zero or below. And so this has also allowed policy makers to do the fourth and rather magical kind of policy initiative which is to get investors to believe that they fully have their back and there’s more to come if needed.

On the duration and the severity, the severity, it’s as bad as we thought it would be. Q2 will be absolutely horrible, one of the worst quarters of growth on record. And it will be enough to drag the full-year growth across the globe to about -5% or -6% this year. So the damage has really been painful and that’s why the duration of the shutdown was always so critical. You can’t have this last for very long before you really start to impart, I think, permanent damage to the economy.

And so on the third question of duration, I think that’s probably the most positive development. We are seeing economies come out of lockdown and that’s important. So technically, what we could see if there is not another shutdown, is that the recession ends in the second quarter and that by June, we’re back in growth mode. But to get back to where we were a year ago, it’s going to take at least another one-and-a-half to two years from today. And for some sectors, they might never get back to where they were. And so I think it’s important to keep that in mind.

Markets, though, do respond to change and the mere fact that growth will be recovering, I think, is what’s allowing – in conjunction with the policy response – markets to seemingly disconnect from the economy. But, look, markets always bottom in recessions and so you always get bear markets ending in recessions. And markets do predict the turn and if you believe that we won’t have another shutdown, you can believe in what markets are beginning to price in today.

The real risk is a wave of kind of rolling peaks or second peaks of the virus. But to shut down economies again, I think, is almost out of the question. And that’s for several reasons. One, the political fortitude isn’t there, but two, citizens’ fortitude isn’t there. Three, we’ve learned a lot about how the disease, I think, spreads, who’s most at risk and how to protect those vulnerable parts of the population. But we’ve also made significant advancements in contact tracing, in medication and so we’re better able to deal, I think, with the consequences.

And also really important is the idea that those economies that were in complete lockdown actually have not exhibited statistically a lot better results than those economies that are observing social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands regularly, and so it’s becoming more apparent, I think, that there are ways other than locking down an entire economy to controlling the virus. And this is what will allow growth even though growth is going to be extraordinarily uneven, it will allow growth and it will allow some repair to take place.

What does this mean for some of the fixed income markets? Well first of all on rates, look, central banks don’t want rates to go up. They’re buying enough of the bond market to probably preclude that from happening in any meaningful way near term. I think the financial repression that you get through really low short-term rates but also really low long-term rates is something they’d want to keep in place.

On the credit side, what we’ve seen is liquidity returning and what we’re likely to see going forward because corporations had a lot of debt on the balance sheet, they will now go into a term out and then delever type of mode. And so by terming out debt, they’re removing the liquidity risk that might come in having to meet near-term maturities in a second wave, for example. And they now have a lender of last resort in central banks who are actually buying and funding corporations. And so when I combine all these together, I look at an economy which is still challenging, it will create some defaults. There’s no doubt we’re going to see more of those. But for those that don’t default, what you’re likely to see is a trend toward deleveraging and as that occurs with the liquidity backstop, I think corporates are well poised in this kind of environment, where you get an uneven and very slow recovery, to do well.

Mortgages and asset backed, so parts of that market really haven’t seen the protection that other parts have. But again, we’ve seen quick recovery in those sectors that are more interest rate sensitive like housing, and so this, I do believe, should be enough to kind of carry a lot of those segments of the market, I think, tighter. And so I do see the negative interest rate or really low interest rate environment in this context to providing an additional impetus, I think, for investors to seek out yield with some safety. And combining those things means that some non-government securities, particularly higher quality, should see good demand but also good protection from policy makers.

So again, we’re not out of the woods. There is significant risk that the virus spreads or that we have to lock down certain components of the economy. I think the risk is lower than it was because we’re not likely to lock down the whole economy. But for those that do have a longer horizon, if we can get growth going again, we might be able to look at this in the rearview mirror and say it was one of the sharpest but also one of the shortest recessions on record.

Thank you.

 

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the markets.

The Group of Seven (G7) is an international intergovernmental economic organization consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Term Out The recapitalization of short-term debt to long-term debt on a company’s balance sheet and/or extending the debt maturity profile of a borrower during refinancing.

Mortgage-backed security (MBS) security which is secured (or ‘backed’) by a collection of mortgages. Investors receive periodic payments derived from the underlying mortgages, similar to coupons. Similar to an asset-backed security.

Asset-backed securities (ABS) A financial security which is ‘backed’ with assets such as loans, credit card debts or leases. They give investors the opportunity to invest in a wide variety of income-generating assets.

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C-0520-30940 05-15-21

隱藏影片內容

環球團隊的觀點

環球債券

環球債券聯席主管 Nick Maroutsos 表示,即使沒有負利率,債券投資組合仍須更加努力才能達到理想的回報。

美國固定收益

美國固定收益主管 Greg Wilensky 討論識別及分散債券組合內的風險因素之重要性。

企業信貸

信貸投資組合經理 John Lloyd 和 Tim Winstone 表示,若深入檢視信貸基本因素,便會發現更細微的差異,屆時市場將關注近期債務水平上升的現象。

我們的固定收益投資實力

駿利亨德森固定收益團隊提供主動型資產管理方案,助客戶達成投資目標。回顧過去四十年,我們的環球投資團隊推陳出新,開拓各類產品方案,迎合客戶各式各樣、日新月異的需求。無論是核心抑或跨板塊投資,乃至更特定的投資方案,我們提供創新和與眾不同的技巧,致力協助客戶駕馭每個獨一無二的經濟週期,並由團隊藉著個別策略或結合不同策略的特定方案發揮其實力。

不同團隊和地區貫徹知識共享理念,鼓勵通力合作,彼此討論投資理念,各個團隊能夠在嚴謹的架構範圍內保留一定程度的靈活性。我們的投資組合構建流程具備嚴格的風險管理框架,致力創造更佳的經風險調整後回報。此外,我們相信透明度是與客戶建立真正夥伴關係的基礎,憑藉完善、可重複的投資流程,並提供我們投資專才的第一手見解,務求得到及維繫客戶的信心。

Fixed Income Teams Org Chart

2020年6月

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