Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon Ward has worked as an Economic Adviser studying financial markets for more than 30 years. He believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.

Simon joined Henderson following its acquisition of New Star in 2009. He has also held positions at WorldInvest, Lombard Street Research, and Bank Julius Baer. Simon has degrees from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College.

Articles Written

Is US monetary strength reversing?
Global Perspectives

Is US monetary strength reversing?

US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019.

UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut
Global Perspectives

UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut

UK rate cut sceptics argue that a rise of 135.000, or 0.5%, in the number of employees in the three months to November from the prior three months signals a strong labour market and will give MPC doves a reason to climb down.

Chinese firms less downbeat on credit conditions
Global Perspectives China

Chinese firms less downbeat on credit conditions

A fall in Chinese money growth during H2 2019, especially in real terms, suggests that the economy will remain weak through H1 2020.

Early 2020 money data key for global outlook
Global Perspectives China

Early 2020 money data key for global outlook

Six-month growth of global (i.e. G7 plus E7) real narrow money is estimated to have been unchanged at 2.4% (not annualised) in December, based on monetary data covering 70% of the aggregate and near-complete CPI inflation data.

Chinese nominal GDP confusion: slowdown confirmed
Global Perspectives China

Chinese nominal GDP confusion: slowdown confirmed

The Chinese GDP numbers released on Friday appeared to show a strong pick-up in nominal growth in Q4.

Is China recovering?
Global Perspectives China

Is China recovering?

Chinese official activity data for December mostly surprised positively, echoing an earlier PMI revival.

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UK inflation slump piles pressure on tardy MPC
Global Perspectives

UK inflation slump piles pressure on tardy MPC

The forecast here a year ago was that the MPC would cut Bank rate to 0.5% during 2019.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

The baseline scenario in our previous quarterly commentary was that global economic momentum, having bottomed in Q3 2019, would remain weak in early 2020 before strengthening towards mid-year.

US inventory cycle yet to bottom
Global Perspectives

US inventory cycle yet to bottom

The modest revival in the global manufacturing PMI in late 2019, on the view here, partly reflects a bottoming out of the global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle.

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Chinese credit conditions still tight
Global Perspectives China

Chinese credit conditions still tight

A recent pick-up in Chinese PMIs has boosted recovery hopes but the view here, based on monetary trends, is that such optimism is premature.

Is market optimism premature?
Global Perspectives

Is market optimism premature?

The long-standing view here has been that global economic momentum would bottom around Q3 2019 but remain weak into H1 2020.

Chinese money trends suggesting PMI relapse
Global Perspectives

Chinese money trends suggesting PMI relapse

Hopes of a rebound in Chinese industrial output growth have been boosted by a pick-up in the Markit manufacturing PMI to the top of its range in recent years.