For financial professionals in Belgium

Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon Ward has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 30 years. His forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.

Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.

This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon Ward to Janus Henderson investment teams. Comments and questions are welcome.

Simon joined Henderson in 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Global money trends still cooling amid US data confusion
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still cooling amid US data confusion

Global money trends continue to suggest a near-term economic slowdown, with the caveat that interpretation of US monetary statistics is complicated by recent regulatory changes, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – January 2021
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – January 2021

Monetary indicators suggest an increase in market volatility in early 2021 and a sustained inflation rise into 2022, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global monetary backdrop less market-friendly at end-2020
Global Perspectives

Global monetary backdrop less market-friendly at end-2020

A key measure of global “excess” money has turned negative, suggesting increased downside risk for markets, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

What’s up with US M1?
Global Perspectives

What’s up with US M1?

A post-election surge in M1 could be a positive signal for the economy and markets but is more likely to reflect a statistical distortion, cautions Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Market correction or monetary reacceleration?
Global Perspectives

Market correction or monetary reacceleration?

Equity market prospects have deteriorated barring a new pick-up in money growth, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” forecast for UK inflation
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” forecast for UK inflation

Underlying CPI inflation has risen and the headline rate is likely to overshoot Bank of England and consensus forecasts, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global “excess” money less favourable
Global Perspectives

Global “excess” money less favourable

The global monetary backdrop is temporarily less market-supportive, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global outlook: monetary / cycle impulses to outweigh virus drag
Global Perspectives

Global outlook: monetary / cycle impulses to outweigh virus drag

Virus developments are unlikely to derail global industrial recovery, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Euroland money trends normalising
Global Perspectives

Euroland money trends normalising

Money trends continue to give a reassuring message for Euroland economic prospects but US growth is likely to be much stronger in 2021, argues Simon Ward.

Questioning Chinese optimism
Global Perspectives

Questioning Chinese optimism

Reduced policy support has been reflected in a cooling of monetary trends but the PBoC may be anticipating an external boost to growth, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global money trends still giving positive economic signal
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still giving positive economic signal

A recent moderation of global narrow money growth is consistent with continued positive economic developments but there is less “excess” liquidity to fuel market gains, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Chinese money / credit data softer under the hood
Global Perspectives

Chinese money / credit data softer under the hood

Money trends warrant PBoC caution in withdrawing policy support, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.