Simon Ward

Economist

Simon Ward has worked as an economist studying financial markets for more than 30 years. He believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.

Simon joined Henderson following its acquisition of New Star in 2009. He has also held positions at WorldInvest, Lombard Street Research, and Bank Julius Baer. Simon has degrees from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College.

Simon Ward has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 30 years. His forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.

Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.

This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon Ward to Janus Henderson investment teams. Comments and questions are welcome.

Simon joined Henderson in 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Global money trends still giving positive economic signal
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still giving positive economic signal

A recent moderation of global narrow money growth is consistent with continued positive economic developments but there is less “excess” liquidity to fuel market gains, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Chinese money / credit data softer under the hood
Global Perspectives

Chinese money / credit data softer under the hood

Money trends warrant PBoC caution in withdrawing policy support, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global output rebound suggesting earnings upside
Global Perspectives

Global output rebound suggesting earnings upside

A V-shaped recovery in global industrial output is almost complete but has yet to be reflected in earnings estimates, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – October 2020
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – October 2020

The global broad money stock is far above its estimated “equilibrium” level, implying medium-term upward pressure on asset prices, economic growth and goods and services inflation, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Capex comeback
Global Perspectives

Capex comeback

A surprisingly strong recovery in business investment is evidence that the Juglar cycle has turned, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Mulling market weakness
Global Perspectives

Mulling market weakness

The recent reversal in equity markets may reflect a temporary diminution of monetary support rather than a darkening economic outlook, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

More reasons for optimism in US Q2 sector accounts
Global Perspectives

More reasons for optimism in US Q2 sector accounts

Strong household money growth and stable corporate finances are hopeful features of the latest US quarterly financial accounts, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global V scenario moving from forecast to fact
Global Perspectives

Global V scenario moving from forecast to fact

Successive V-shaped recoveries are playing out in global economic aggregates, with labour market recuperation likely to follow, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Why the cyclicals rally could extend
Global Perspectives

Why the cyclicals rally could extend

Traditional cyclical equity market sectors could sustain their outperformance of defensive sectors and start to overtake tech, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

OECD leading indicators recovering, note statistical meddling
Global Perspectives

OECD leading indicators recovering, note statistical meddling

The OECD’s leading indicators are giving a recovery signal but users should be aware of a recent methodological change that has increased monthly volatility, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Industrial output rebound bullish for equity earnings
Global Perspectives

Industrial output rebound bullish for equity earnings

Unprecedented GDP falls greatly exaggerate damage to equity market earnings, which are geared to rebounding industrial output, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global monetary update: money growth still strong, lending slowdown to extend
Global Perspectives

Global monetary update: money growth still strong, lending slowdown to extend

Global monetary acceleration since early 2020 argues for an inflation pick-up in 2021-22 but the increase could prove temporary if money growth now normalises, argues Economic Adviser Simon Ward.