For financial professionals in Belgium

Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Equities / cash switching rule update
Global Perspectives

Equities / cash switching rule update

The “monetarist” equities / cash switching rule followed here recommends unhedged global equities (MSCI World index) only when the following two conditions are satisfied:
1. Six-month change in global (i.e. G7 plus E7*) real narrow money above six-month change in industrial output;
2. 12-month change in global real narrow money above slow moving average (currently at 5.6%).

Still looks like a “V”
Global Perspectives

Still looks like a “V”

The central view here remains that the global economy is staging a V-shaped recovery – or an italic V, at least – from the covid shock (not recession), with industrial output / GDP likely to regain pre-crisis levels in late 2020 / early 2021.

Bonds / equities aren’t giving different messages

Bonds / equities aren’t giving different messages

The strong rally in equities since late March contrasts with static longer-term government bond yields, causing some to argue that economic expectations in the two markets are out of sync, the suggestion being that a pessimistic bond market is smarter.

Chinese stockbuilding cycle aligned with global upswing

Chinese stockbuilding cycle aligned with global upswing

The global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle is judged here to have bottomed in H1 2020, probably Q1. The cycle acted as a drag on global economic momentum in 2018-19 but is now scheduled to provide a tailwind at least through end-2021.

Global data flow supporting “V” scenario

Global data flow supporting “V” scenario

Global six-month real money growth – on both narrow and broad definitions – is estimated to have risen to another post-WW2 high in June, based on data for the US, China, Japan, Brazil and India, which have a combined two-thirds weighting in the G7 plus E7 aggregates calculated here.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets (July 2020)

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets (July 2020)

The previous quarterly commentary suggested that the policy response to the covid-19 crisis would lead to a strong rise in global money growth, in turn suggesting strong economic growth in late 2020 / 2021.

The business investment cycle is bottoming

The business investment cycle is bottoming

Annual growth of US broad money, on the M2+ definition* used here, rose further to 25.7% in May, the fastest since 1943 and more than 20 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

US monetary scenarios

US monetary scenarios

Annual growth of US broad money, on the M2+ definition* used here, rose further to 25.7% in May, the fastest since 1943 and more than 20 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

A long-term perspective on US money and wealth

A long-term perspective on US money and wealth

Recent posts on the “quantity theory of wealth” may have been heavy going, so what follows is an attempt to explain the approach more simply using charts of US data extending back over 100 years.

How strong money growth will boost inflation

How strong money growth will boost inflation

Global inflation is expected here to pick up significantly over the next 2-3 years. This would be consistent with the Kondratyev “long wave” price / inflation cycle, which implies a multi-year rise to a peak in the late 2020s, as well as current monetary trends – G7 annual broad money growth may have reached 16% in May, which would be the fastest since 1973.

The case for EM equities

The case for EM equities

A seven-factor checklist for assessing the relative attraction of emerging market equities is giving the most promising message since 2016.

US money growth above 1881 peacetime high

US money growth above 1881 peacetime high

Incoming monetary news remains strong, supporting the expectation here of a V-shaped global economic recovery accompanied by buoyant markets and an inflationary pick-up in 2021-22.