For financial professionals in Belgium

Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Euroland monetary reversal confirmed

Euroland monetary reversal confirmed

Euroland money numbers for January provide further evidence that the global monetary backdrop was deteriorating before the coronavirus shock.

“Cyclical” equities – risk or opportunity?

“Cyclical” equities – risk or opportunity?

The MSCI World cyclical sectors index last week briefly reached a new record relative to the companion defensive sectors index, seemingly ignoring a soft global economy and the negative impact of the coronavirus shock.

Chinese money trends weak before virus hit
Global Perspectives China

Chinese money trends weak before virus hit

Chinese money and credit numbers for January were probably little affected by the coronavirus shock, which had limited economic impact until this month.

Global business investment cycle moving into H1 low
Global Perspectives

Global business investment cycle moving into H1 low

The forecast here – before the coronavirus shock – that the global economy would remain weak in H1 2020 rested partly on a judgement that the business investment cycle had yet to reach bottom.

UK economic weakness masked by government spending surge
Global Perspectives

UK economic weakness masked by government spending surge

UK GDP grew by a slightly firmer than expected 1.4% in 2019 as a whole but the expenditure breakdown gives little cause for celebration.

OECD leading indicators: fade the pick-up
Global Perspectives

OECD leading indicators: fade the pick-up

The OECD’s leading indicators continued to recover in December but the signal should be discounted.

Has the virus shock improved monetary prospects?

Has the virus shock improved monetary prospects?

The global manufacturing PMI new orders index reached a 13-month high in January but narrow money trends suggested that it was on course to peak around April and relapse into mid-year.

Chinese PMI softening before virus hit

Chinese PMI softening before virus hit

Chinese recovery hopes were boosted by a rise in the Markit manufacturing PMI to a 35-month high in November.

Is US monetary strength reversing?
Global Perspectives

Is US monetary strength reversing?

US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019.

UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut
Global Perspectives

UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut

UK rate cut sceptics argue that a rise of 135.000, or 0.5%, in the number of employees in the three months to November from the prior three months signals a strong labour market and will give MPC doves a reason to climb down.

Chinese firms less downbeat on credit conditions
Global Perspectives China

Chinese firms less downbeat on credit conditions

A fall in Chinese money growth during H2 2019, especially in real terms, suggests that the economy will remain weak through H1 2020.

Early 2020 money data key for global outlook
Global Perspectives China

Early 2020 money data key for global outlook

Six-month growth of global (i.e. G7 plus E7) real narrow money is estimated to have been unchanged at 2.4% (not annualised) in December, based on monetary data covering 70% of the aggregate and near-complete CPI inflation data.