For financial professionals in Belgium

Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon Ward has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 30 years. His forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.

Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.

This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon Ward to Janus Henderson investment teams. Comments and questions are welcome.

Simon joined Henderson in 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Is China recovering?
Global Perspectives China

Is China recovering?

Chinese official activity data for December mostly surprised positively, echoing an earlier PMI revival.

UK inflation slump piles pressure on tardy MPC
Global Perspectives

UK inflation slump piles pressure on tardy MPC

The forecast here a year ago was that the MPC would cut Bank rate to 0.5% during 2019.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

The baseline scenario in our previous quarterly commentary was that global economic momentum, having bottomed in Q3 2019, would remain weak in early 2020 before strengthening towards mid-year.

US inventory cycle yet to bottom
Global Perspectives

US inventory cycle yet to bottom

The modest revival in the global manufacturing PMI in late 2019, on the view here, partly reflects a bottoming out of the global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle.

Chinese credit conditions still tight
Global Perspectives China

Chinese credit conditions still tight

A recent pick-up in Chinese PMIs has boosted recovery hopes but the view here, based on monetary trends, is that such optimism is premature.

Is market optimism premature?
Global Perspectives

Is market optimism premature?

The long-standing view here has been that global economic momentum would bottom around Q3 2019 but remain weak into H1 2020.

Chinese money trends suggesting PMI relapse
Global Perspectives

Chinese money trends suggesting PMI relapse

Hopes of a rebound in Chinese industrial output growth have been boosted by a pick-up in the Markit manufacturing PMI to the top of its range in recent years.

UK economy still stagnant / recessionary
Global Perspectives

UK economy still stagnant / recessionary

UK monthly GDP / gross value added (GVA) for October will be released on 10 December, two days before the election. GDP is currently estimated to have fallen by 0.16% in August and 0.07% in September, with the September level 0.10% below the Q3 average.

Global recovery not yet assured
Global Perspectives

Global recovery not yet assured

Incoming news appears consistent with the assessment here that global industrial momentum bottomed in Q3 but will remain weak through Q1, at least.

Euroland money data solid, leading indicator stabilising
Global Perspectives

Euroland money data solid, leading indicator stabilising

Euroland money measures rose solidly in October after a minor September slowdown, with the larger trend continuing to suggest stronger economic performance in 2020.

Why medium-term inflation risks are rising
Global Perspectives

Why medium-term inflation risks are rising

Global nominal GDP has slowed significantly since late 2017 but recent stronger money trends suggest a reacceleration during 2020.

China still holding back global money growth
Global Perspectives China

China still holding back global money growth

Money and credit trends suggest that Chinese economic momentum will remain weak through H1 2020.