For financial professionals in Belgium

Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon Ward has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 30 years. His forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.

Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.

This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon Ward to Janus Henderson investment teams. Comments and questions are welcome.

Simon joined Henderson in 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

China still holding back global money growth
Global Perspectives China

China still holding back global money growth

Money and credit trends suggest that Chinese economic momentum will remain weak through H1 2020.

UK rate cut delayed by election
Global Perspectives

UK rate cut delayed by election

Last week’s MPC communications and recent data suggest a cut in Bank rate at the next meeting on 19 December.

Global near-term prospects still weak
Global Perspectives

Global near-term prospects still weak

Optimists cite October manufacturing PMI results as evidence that global economic momentum is rebounding. Such hopes appear premature.

Global leading indicators reviving, still weak
Global Perspectives

Global leading indicators reviving, still weak

Short-term leading indicators suggest a modest revival in global economic momentum into early 2020 but – like monetary trends – have yet to signal a full recovery.

Labour market watch: negative UK data

Labour market watch: negative UK data

Slack is opening up in the UK labour market, strengthening the case for a rate cut regardless of Brexit developments.

Global leading indicators less downbeat

Global leading indicators less downbeat

Chinese September monetary numbers are a mixed bag but will probably be interpreted positively by the market.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

Previous quarterly commentaries suggested that global economic momentum would fall into a low around Q3 2019. Recent news is consistent with the scenario but money trends have yet to give a clear signal of economic recovery. A bottoming of momentum, however, may be sufficient to warrant rotating away from defensive investment strategies that have prospered

UK data wrap: CBI confidence slump, money trends stabilising

UK data wrap: CBI confidence slump, money trends stabilising

The CBI’s Q3 financial services survey released overnight rounds out a bleak message from earlier surveys covering industry, other services and distribution, supporting the view here that the economy has probably already entered a recession

Euroland PMIs: darkest before the dawn

Euroland PMIs: darkest before the dawn

Euroland September flash PMI results were disappointing but monetary trends continue to give a hopeful signal for economic prospects.

US core CPI inflation: fade the pick-up

US core CPI inflation: fade the pick-up

​US annual CPI inflation excluding food and energy rose to 2.39% in August, the highest since 2008. Is the pick-up in core inflation long predicted by Phillips curve adherents finally materialising? ​ A detailed examination suggests not. The ex. food and energy measure has been pushed up by the goods and medical care components –

Euroland money trends suggesting 2020 recovery

Euroland money trends suggesting 2020 recovery

​Euroland money measures grew strongly in July, more than compensating for softer June data and suggesting improving economic prospects.

Euroland PMI weak but money trends still hopeful
Global Perspectives

Euroland PMI weak but money trends still hopeful

​The Euroland manufacturing PMI fell further in July but the view here remains that the index is bottoming, based on the leading signal from a rise in six-month real narrow money growth since late 2018.