Simon Ward

Economist

Simon Ward has worked as an economist studying financial markets for more than 30 years. He believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.

Simon joined Henderson following its acquisition of New Star in 2009. He has also held positions at WorldInvest, Lombard Street Research, and Bank Julius Baer. Simon has degrees from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College.

Articles Written

US loan officer survey signalling credit / economic weakness
Global Perspectives

US loan officer survey signalling credit / economic weakness

​The Fed’s January senior loan officer survey provides further evidence of a deterioration in US economic prospects, signalling a tightening of loan supply and – more significantly – markedly weak credit demand.

Global money trends still downbeat
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still downbeat

Additional monetary data released last week confirm that global six-month real narrow money growth ticked higher in November / December. Growth, however, remains below its range over 2009-17 – a sustained further increase is needed to warrant a shift away from economic pessimism. January global manufacturing PMI results, meanwhile, are consistent with the forecast here of a joint downturn in the stockbuilding and business investment cycles.​

Euroland money trends: false positive?
Global Perspectives

Euroland money trends: false positive?

Recent Euroland money / credit news has been a mixed bag. The assessment here is that economic momentum is likely to remain weak but a region-wide recession will be avoided barring an external shock.

2016 replay?
Global Perspectives

2016 replay?

​Claims are being made that current economic / market conditions resemble those in early 2016.

Chinese money trends signalling further slowdown
Global Perspectives

Chinese money trends signalling further slowdown

​Weak Chinese December money and credit numbers signal that policy easing has yet to translate into an improvement in economic prospects.

US C&I loan surge signalling stocks cycle downswing

​A surge in US banks’ commercial and industrial (C&I) loans in late 2018 supports the view here that the stockbuilding cycle has peaked and will act as a drag on GDP growth in 2019.