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Portfolio Manager Daniel Graña explains that in light of the retreat from further global economic integration, reformist policies and value-added services are likely to become future drivers of emerging market growth and investment returns.
May Ling Wee, China equities portfolio manager, discusses the main highlights for investors in China stocks over the first half of the year, the implications on portfolio performance and the outlook for the rest of the year.
Money measures have surged in most major economies. Narrow money outperforms broad money as a leading indicator of economic activity. Annual growth of the official M1 measure in June was 35.9% in the US, 22.0% in Canada, 15.2% in the UK, 12.6% in the Eurozone and 12.3% in Japan.
The global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle is judged here to have bottomed in H1 2020, probably Q1. The cycle acted as a drag on global economic momentum in 2018-19 but is now scheduled to provide a tailwind at least through end-2021.
In this Q&A, May Ling Wee from the China Equities Team, comments on the key issues impacting China’s recovery post COVID-19 and stock market performance year-to-date.
May Ling Wee, China equities portfolio manager, provides evidence that a resumption of economic activity is underfoot in China and discusses the accelerating digitisation of the economy, as well as how both companies and the government are supporting consumers and businesses.
Chinese money growth picked up further in March, supporting expectations of a strong economic bounceback during H2 2020.
Major countries are now adopting radical social distancing policies, which may or may not be as effective as the lockdown in China’s Hubei province in late January.
Chinese February money / credit numbers are hopeful, signalling stable monetary conditions despite the coronavirus shock.
Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode from the UK-based Global Technology Team assess the impact of the coronavirus on tech companies and shares their near-term views for the sector, as well as portfolio implications.
Chinese money and credit numbers for January were probably little affected by the coronavirus shock, which had limited economic impact until this month.
Charlie Awdry, China equities portfolio manager, shares his views on the current coronavirus outbreak, its impact and the implications for portfolio positioning.
