The world is set for a strong cyclical recovery. Andrew Mulliner, Head of Global Aggregate Strategies, shares his thoughts on the divergence in economic fortunes that are beginning to appear and the likely impact on investment opportunities.
Portfolio Manager Daniel Graña explains that in light of the retreat from further global economic integration, reformist policies and value-added services are likely to become future drivers of emerging market growth and investment returns.
May Ling Wee, China equities portfolio manager, discusses the main highlights for investors in China stocks over the first half of the year, the implications on portfolio performance and the outlook for the rest of the year.
Money measures have surged in most major economies. Narrow money outperforms broad money as a leading indicator of economic activity. Annual growth of the official M1 measure in June was 35.9% in the US, 22.0% in Canada, 15.2% in the UK, 12.6% in the Eurozone and 12.3% in Japan.
The global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle is judged here to have bottomed in H1 2020, probably Q1. The cycle acted as a drag on global economic momentum in 2018-19 but is now scheduled to provide a tailwind at least through end-2021.
May Ling Wee, China equities portfolio manager, provides evidence that a resumption of economic activity is underfoot in China and discusses the accelerating digitisation of the economy, as well as how both companies and the government are supporting consumers and businesses.