Simon Ward has worked as an economist studying financial markets for more than 30 years. He believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.
Simon joined Henderson following its acquisition of New Star in 2009. He has also held positions at WorldInvest, Lombard Street Research, and Bank Julius Baer. Simon has degrees from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College.
Previous quarterly commentaries suggested that global economic momentum would fall into a low around Q3 2019. Recent news is consistent with the scenario but money trends have yet to give a clear signal of economic recovery. A bottoming of momentum, however, may be sufficient to warrant rotating away from defensive investment strategies that have prospered
The CBI’s Q3 financial services survey released overnight rounds out a bleak message from earlier surveys covering industry, other services and distribution, supporting the view here that the economy has probably already entered a recession
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