For qualified investors in Switzerland

Simon Ward

Economist

Simon Ward has worked as an economist studying financial markets for more than 30 years. He believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.

Simon joined Henderson following its acquisition of New Star in 2009. He has also held positions at WorldInvest, Lombard Street Research, and Bank Julius Baer. Simon has degrees from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College.

Simon Ward has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 30 years. His forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.

Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.

This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon Ward to Janus Henderson investment teams. Comments and questions are welcome.

Simon joined Henderson in 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

A “monetarist” forecast for UK inflation
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” forecast for UK inflation

Underlying CPI inflation has risen and the headline rate is likely to overshoot Bank of England and consensus forecasts, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global “excess” money less favourable
Global Perspectives

Global “excess” money less favourable

The global monetary backdrop is temporarily less market-supportive, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global outlook: monetary / cycle impulses to outweigh virus drag
Global Perspectives

Global outlook: monetary / cycle impulses to outweigh virus drag

Virus developments are unlikely to derail global industrial recovery, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Euroland money trends normalising
Global Perspectives

Euroland money trends normalising

Money trends continue to give a reassuring message for Euroland economic prospects but US growth is likely to be much stronger in 2021, argues Simon Ward.

Questioning Chinese optimism
Global Perspectives

Questioning Chinese optimism

Reduced policy support has been reflected in a cooling of monetary trends but the PBoC may be anticipating an external boost to growth, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global money trends still giving positive economic signal
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still giving positive economic signal

A recent moderation of global narrow money growth is consistent with continued positive economic developments but there is less “excess” liquidity to fuel market gains, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Chinese money / credit data softer under the hood
Global Perspectives

Chinese money / credit data softer under the hood

Money trends warrant PBoC caution in withdrawing policy support, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global output rebound suggesting earnings upside
Global Perspectives

Global output rebound suggesting earnings upside

A V-shaped recovery in global industrial output is almost complete but has yet to be reflected in earnings estimates, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – October 2020
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – October 2020

The global broad money stock is far above its estimated “equilibrium” level, implying medium-term upward pressure on asset prices, economic growth and goods and services inflation, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Capex comeback
Global Perspectives

Capex comeback

A surprisingly strong recovery in business investment is evidence that the Juglar cycle has turned, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Mulling market weakness
Global Perspectives

Mulling market weakness

The recent reversal in equity markets may reflect a temporary diminution of monetary support rather than a darkening economic outlook, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

More reasons for optimism in US Q2 sector accounts
Global Perspectives

More reasons for optimism in US Q2 sector accounts

Strong household money growth and stable corporate finances are hopeful features of the latest US quarterly financial accounts, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.