Simon Ward

Economist

Simon Ward has worked as an economist studying financial markets for more than 30 years. He believes that changes in monetary conditions are a key driver of both the economic cycle and movements in financial markets; accordingly, a forecasting approach emphasising monetary analysis has a better chance of success.

Simon joined Henderson following its acquisition of New Star in 2009. He has also held positions at WorldInvest, Lombard Street Research, and Bank Julius Baer. Simon has degrees from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College.

Articles Written

Chinese money trends suggesting PMI relapse
Global Perspectives

Chinese money trends suggesting PMI relapse

Hopes of a rebound in Chinese industrial output growth have been boosted by a pick-up in the Markit manufacturing PMI to the top of its range in recent years.

UK economy still stagnant / recessionary

UK economy still stagnant / recessionary

UK monthly GDP / gross value added (GVA) for October will be released on 10 December, two days before the election. GDP is currently estimated to have fallen by 0.16% in August and 0.07% in September, with the September level 0.10% below the Q3 average.

Global recovery not yet assured
Global Perspectives

Global recovery not yet assured

Incoming news appears consistent with the assessment here that global industrial momentum bottomed in Q3 but will remain weak through Q1, at least.

Why medium-term inflation risks are rising
Global Perspectives

Why medium-term inflation risks are rising

Global nominal GDP has slowed significantly since late 2017 but recent stronger money trends suggest a reacceleration during 2020.

China still holding back global money growth
Global Perspectives China

China still holding back global money growth

Money and credit trends suggest that Chinese economic momentum will remain weak through H1 2020.

UK rate cut delayed by election
Global Perspectives

UK rate cut delayed by election

Last week’s MPC communications and recent data suggest a cut in Bank rate at the next meeting on 19 December.

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Global near-term prospects still weak
Global Perspectives

Global near-term prospects still weak

Optimists cite October manufacturing PMI results as evidence that global economic momentum is rebounding. Such hopes appear premature.

Global leading indicators reviving, still weak
Global Perspectives

Global leading indicators reviving, still weak

Short-term leading indicators suggest a modest revival in global economic momentum into early 2020 but – like monetary trends – have yet to signal a full recovery.

Labour market watch: negative UK data

Labour market watch: negative UK data

Slack is opening up in the UK labour market, strengthening the case for a rate cut regardless of Brexit developments.

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Global leading indicators less downbeat

Global leading indicators less downbeat

Chinese September monetary numbers are a mixed bag but will probably be interpreted positively by the market.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

Previous quarterly commentaries suggested that global economic momentum would fall into a low around Q3 2019. Recent news is consistent with the scenario but money trends have yet to give a clear signal of economic recovery. A bottoming of momentum, however, may be sufficient to warrant rotating away from defensive investment strategies that have prospered

UK data wrap: CBI confidence slump, money trends stabilising

UK data wrap: CBI confidence slump, money trends stabilising

The CBI’s Q3 financial services survey released overnight rounds out a bleak message from earlier surveys covering industry, other services and distribution, supporting the view here that the economy has probably already entered a recession