Market GPS
Investment Outlook 2021
What should be on the radar for investors in 2021? Market GPS helps direction-set with a video summary, in-depth asset class analysis and our latest portfolio manager views.
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Global business investment cycle moving into H1 low
The forecast here – before the coronavirus shock – that the global economy would remain weak in H1 2020 rested partly on a judgement that the business investment cycle had yet to reach bottom.
Coronavirus: does it change the outlook for Chinese equities? UK
Charlie Awdry, China equities portfolio manager, shares his views on the current coronavirus outbreak, its impact and the implications for portfolio positioning.
Expected drawdowns – How much money should I lose?
Can historical and simulated data provide some guidance to what scale of asset price swings investors could expect over time? In this article Portfolio manager Aneet Chachra and David Elms, Head of Diversified Alternatives, address the value of drawdown probabilities in helping to calibrate our expectations of price moves.
Multi Sector Income: election insights — how bond markets may react
How will the 2020 US presidential election impact bond markets? Co-Head of Global Credit Research and Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Sector Income Strategy, John Lloyd, anticipates more risk should a left-leaning candidate win the Democratic nomination, with increased volatility possible in sectors such as banking, health care, energy and technology.
UK economic weakness masked by government spending surge
UK GDP grew by a slightly firmer than expected 1.4% in 2019 as a whole but the expenditure breakdown gives little cause for celebration.
Solving a hard problem with a simple model
In this article, portfolio manager Aneet Chachra considers the potential benefits of a simple tactical allocation model based on trailing relative returns when looking at US vs emerging markets, and the importance of moving quickly when making investment decisions.
OECD leading indicators: fade the pick-up
The OECD’s leading indicators continued to recover in December but the signal should be discounted.
Multi-Sector Income: do credit ratings obscure risk and deter opportunities?
In this video, Multi-Sector Income portfolio managers John Lloyd and Seth Meyer, discuss why credit ratings may not be an accurate reflection of risk and could obscure opportunities for active managers to capitalise on.
Investing in real estate: Spotify or cassette tape?
Guy Barnard and Greg Kuhl from the Global Property Equities Team, highlight the increasing importance of ‘non-core’ property sectors within an evolving real estate landscape.
Has the virus shock improved monetary prospects?
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index reached a 13-month high in January but narrow money trends suggested that it was on course to peak around April and relapse into mid-year.
Coronavirus contagion concerns
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, considers the potential impact of the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus from a purely asset allocation perspective.
Chinese PMI softening before virus hit
Chinese recovery hopes were boosted by a rise in the Markit manufacturing PMI to a 35-month high in November.