For financial professionals in Denmark

Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Why has US money growth slowed?

Why has US money growth slowed?

Treasury “overfunding” of the federal deficit has been a major drag on US money growth but a coming reversal will be offset by Fed QT and a slowdown in bank lending, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Recession-consistent real money weakness

Recession-consistent real money weakness

April money / CPI data reinforce gloom about global economic prospects for the remainder of 2022, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

UK recession now odds-on

UK recession now odds-on

Real money contraction and weakness in other financial variables suggest a 70% probability of a recession in 2022, argues Simon Ward

Monetary relief for bonds?

Monetary relief for bonds?

Global six-month real narrow money growth fell further below industrial output expansion in March but the gap is likely to narrow as CPI and output momentum cool, a development historically associated with a fall in Treasury yields, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

G7 money trends promising 2023-24 inflation relief

G7 money trends promising 2023-24 inflation relief

Recent monetary trends, if sustained, are consistent with inflation rates returning to target by 2024, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – April 2022
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – April 2022

Monetary indicators remain cautionary and similar conditions historically have been associated with relative resilience of defensive sectors, high income yield and quality, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

US money trends at odds with hawkish Fed
Global Perspectives

US money trends at odds with hawkish Fed

With money growth slowing hard, the central bank risks a major policy mistake if it follows through on current tightening plans, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Has the Chinese economy bottomed?
Global Perspectives

Has the Chinese economy bottomed?

Chinese economic news has improved on schedule but further PBoC easing may be needed to bolster monetary trends, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Inflation lessons from the 1970s
Global Perspectives

Inflation lessons from the 1970s

Policy laxity in the mid-1970s allowed high inflation to become entrenched but central banks have already engineered an effective tightening and money trends suggest that planned rate hikes will result in overrestriction, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Fantasy forecasting and the ECB
Global Perspectives

Fantasy forecasting and the ECB

The ECB staff’s downgraded GDP growth projection for 2022 still looks wildly optimistic, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global real money squeeze approaching recession threshold
Global Perspectives

Global real money squeeze approaching recession threshold

Surging commodity prices and the rouble’s collapse could result in global six-month real narrow money growth turning negative, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Eurozone money trends suggesting recession risk
Global Perspectives

Eurozone money trends suggesting recession risk

Nominal money growth has normalised and real growth is worryingly weak, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.