Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon Ward has worked as an economist in financial markets for over 30 years. His forecasting process combines monetary and cycle analysis. Monetary trends signal the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead; cycle analysis provides longer-term context and acts as a cross-check of the monetary signals.

Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”). The relative performance of different assets depends on the direction of the economy and the status of the various cycles as well as popular speculative narratives that concentrate demand and can result in bubbles.

This online journal provides regular updates of the signals from the forecasting approach; it presents a selection of the research circulated by Simon Ward to Janus Henderson investment teams. Comments and questions are welcome.

Simon joined Henderson in 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles écrits

Un point de vue « monétariste » sur l’état actuel des marchés actions (juillet 2020)
Perspectives mondiales

Un point de vue « monétariste » sur l’état actuel des marchés actions (juillet 2020)

Du précédent commentaire trimestriel, il ressortait que la réponse des pouvoirs publics à la crise du COVID-19 conduirait à une forte croissance de la masse monétaire mondiale, elle-même prélude à une croissance économique dynamique fin 2020 / en 2021.

Les statistiques relatives à la masse monétaire mondiale s’améliorent et pourraient bientôt envoyer des signaux encourageants

Les statistiques relatives à la masse monétaire mondiale s’améliorent et pourraient bientôt envoyer des signaux encourageants

Sur six mois, la croissance mondiale de la masse monétaire réelle au sens étroit est repartie à la hausse en février.

L’augmentation de la masse monétaire au sens large présage une hausse de l’inflation à moyen terme

L’augmentation de la masse monétaire au sens large présage une hausse de l’inflation à moyen terme

La réaction du marché et les politiques déployées face au choc causé par le coronavirus devraient se traduire par une forte croissance de la masse monétaire au sens étroit au niveau mondial, laissant ainsi augurer une reprise soutenue de l’activité économique au second semestre 2020 et en 2021, dans l’hypothèse d’un endiguement du virus à la manière des Chinois et d’une levée progressive des mesures de contrôle.

Réflexions à moyen terme

Réflexions à moyen terme

Personne ne connaît ni l’ampleur ni la durée des conséquences économiques de la crise du COVID-19. Il est estimé que le PIB mondial sera 40% plus bas pendant une durée de 6 mois, ce qui représenterait un recul du PIB annuel de 20%.

What if global COVID spread mirrors China?

What if global COVID spread mirrors China?

Major countries are now adopting radical social distancing policies, which may or may not be as effective as the lockdown in China’s Hubei province in late January.

Chinese monetary stability suggesting policy success

Chinese monetary stability suggesting policy success

Chinese February money / credit numbers are hopeful, signalling stable monetary conditions despite the coronavirus shock.

UK Budget suggests rising medium-term inflation risks

UK Budget suggests rising medium-term inflation risks

The UK government and central bank have launched massive fiscal and monetary stimulus at a time of near-full employment. This is unlikely to end well.

Is global real money growth about to surge?

Is global real money growth about to surge?

The baseline expectation here remains that the market / policy response to the coronavirus shock – compounded now by an oil supply shock – will result in an early and strong pick-up in global real money growth, setting the stage for a solid rebound in economic activity during H2 2020 and above-trend growth in 2021.

Euroland monetary reversal confirmed

Euroland monetary reversal confirmed

Euroland money numbers for January provide further evidence that the global monetary backdrop was deteriorating before the coronavirus shock.

« Cyclical » equities – risk or opportunity?

« Cyclical » equities – risk or opportunity?

The MSCI World cyclical sectors index last week briefly reached a new record relative to the companion defensive sectors index, seemingly ignoring a soft global economy and the negative impact of the coronavirus shock.

Global real money growth weaker but bottoming?
Perspectives mondiales

Global real money growth weaker but bottoming?

A post a month ago argued that global monetary developments in early 2020 would be key for assessing economic prospects.

Chinese money trends weak before virus hit

Chinese money trends weak before virus hit

Chinese money and credit numbers for January were probably little affected by the coronavirus shock, which had limited economic impact until this month.