- Global dividends fell 0.9% to $421.9bn in Q3, but underlying growth was 0.3%
- A few large cuts impacted the figures – excluding the two largest, from Petrobras (Brazilian oil) and BHP (Australian mining), underlying growth was 5.3%
- Half of mining companies cut payouts, while chemicals and Asian real estate were also weak
- Banking, utilities, vehicles as well as most oil companies, showed strong growth
- China saw record payouts as oil dividends offset weaker banks and property
- Asia-Pacific ex Japan saw sharp falls in Australia and Taiwan
- US dividend growth slowed but remained robust, rapid European dividend growth continued, but UK was held back by mining cuts
- Underlying growth forecast for 2023 increased from 5.0% to 5.3%, but lower one-off special dividends and exchange rate effects mean a slight reduction in headline forecast from $1.64 to $1.63 trillion, +4.4% year-on-year
Global dividends fell slightly in the third quarter, down 0.9% on a headline basis to $421.9bn according to the latest Global Dividend Index from Janus Henderson. Underlying growth, which adjusts for one-off special dividends, exchange rates and other technical factors, was 0.3%. But large cuts from a handful of companies masked much more encouraging growth around the world.
A few large cuts impacted the figures – excluding the two largest underlying growth was 5.3%
The largest dividend falls came from across the mining sector, where half of companies reduced payouts, and from oil producers in Brazil and Taiwan, against the wider oil-sector trend. Indeed, stripping out just the two biggest cutters, Brazil’s Petrobras and Australian miner BHP, both of which are known for their variable dividends, reveals 5.3% global underlying growth in Q3 – in line with the long-term trend. Dividends from chemicals and Asian real estate companies were also down sharply, reflecting tough market conditions in the region.
Banking, utilities, vehicles as well as most oil companies, showed strong growth
These cuts were offset by strong banking dividends in most parts of the world (up 9.3% underlying), and by rising payouts across a wide range of other sectors, especially utilities and vehicle manufacturers. Globally nine companies in ten raised payouts or held them steady, though there was wide variation across sectors and countries.
China saw record payouts
The third quarter marks the seasonal high point for China and most of Asia Pacific ex Japan. Chinese dividends reached a new record thanks to a large increase from Petrochina, but this masked weakness among China’s banks and property companies. A one sixth fall in Taiwanese payouts reflected difficulties in the oil, chemicals, steel and insurance sectors, while a similar fall in Australia was driven by a large decline in mining payouts. Growth in Hong Kong was held back by the property sector where every company either reduced its dividend or held it steady.
US – slower but robust, Europe – strong, UK – impacted by mining cuts
Elsewhere, US dividends grew at 4.5%, a healthy rate of growth albeit slower than preceding years/periods, and 98% of US companies raised either raised payouts or held them steady. The US was outpaced by Canada which is benefiting from strength in the banking and oil sectors. Europe continued to show very strong growth, extending the pattern seen in its seasonally important second quarter. In the UK, lower mining payouts largely balanced increases from banks, oil producers and utilities. Among emerging markets, there was a wide dispersion – China, India, Saudi Arabia and Czechia were strong, but weakness in Brazil meant payouts were down for emerging markets as a whole.
Forecast – underlying growth upgraded, headline growth trimmed back a touch
Janus Henderson’s forecast for this year has reduced slightly, reflecting lower special dividends and the strengthening dollar. The 2023 headline forecast drops from $1.64 trillion to $1.63 trillion, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. But underlying growth, which is unaffected by exchange rates and one-off special dividends, is stronger than expected. Moreover, several countries, including the US, France, Canada, Switzerland and China are on track to deliver record payouts. The global fund manager is therefore upgrading its forecast for underlying growth from 5.0% to 5.3%.
Ben Lofthouse, head of global equity income at Janus Henderson said: “Apparent weakness in Q3’s global dividends is not a cause for concern, given the large impact a handful of companies made. In fact, the level of growth and its quality look better this year than seemed likely a few months ago as payouts have become less reliant on one-offs and volatile exchange rates.
“Dividend growth from companies generally remains strong across a wide range of sectors and regions, with the exception of commodity related sectors like mining and chemicals. It is quite normal and well understood by investors that commodity dividends will rise and fall with the cycle, however, and does not indicate wider malaise. Moreover, our figures show that a globally diversified income portfolio has natural stabilisers – sectors in the ascendance, such as banking and oil, have been able to counteract those with declining dividends, like mining and chemicals. And of course, dividends are typically much less volatile than earnings over time, providing comfort in times of economic uncertainty.”
ENDS
Press Enquiries
Janus Henderson Investors
Nicole Mullin
Director of Media Relations & PR Agency Mgmt
T: +44 (0) 2078182511
E: Nicole.Mullin@janushenderson.com
Notes to editors
Our headline growth rate describes the change in the total dollar amount paid by companies compared to the corresponding quarter each year. Our underlying figure adjusts for the distortion that can be caused by one-off special dividends, changing exchange rates, the effect of companies entering and leaving the global top 1,200 that comprise our index and the impact of changes in payment dates. The latter two tend to be negligible over the course of a whole year at the global level, though they can have a greater impact in any one quarter, geography or sector.
About Janus Henderson
Janus Henderson Group is a leading global active asset manager dedicated to helping clients define and achieve superior financial outcomes through differentiated insights, disciplined investments, and world-class service.
As of September 30, 2023, Janus Henderson had approximately US$308.3 billion in assets under management, more than 2,000 employees, and offices in 24 cities worldwide. Headquartered in London, the company is listed on the NYSE and ASX.
Source: Janus Henderson Group plc
This press release is solely for the use of members of the media and should not be relied upon by personal investors, financial advisers or institutional investors. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes. All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice.
Issued by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus Henderson Investors International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Janus Henderson Investors UK Limited (reg. no. 906355), Janus Henderson Fund Management UK Limited (reg. no. 2678531), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Janus Henderson Investors Europe S.A. (reg no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier). Henderson Secretarial Services Limited (incorporated and registered in England and Wales, registered no. 1471624, registered office 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE) is the name under which company secretarial services are provided. All these companies are wholly owned subsidiaries of Janus Henderson Group plc. (incorporated and registered in Jersey, registered no. 101484, with registered office at 13 Castle Street, St Helier, Jersey, JE1 1ES). Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Limited ABN 47 124 279 518 is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. U.S. by SEC registered investment advisers that are subsidiaries of Janus Henderson Group plc; Canada through Janus Henderson Investors US LLC only to institutional investors in certain jurisdictions.
Janus Henderson and Knowledge Shared are trademarks of Janus Henderson Group plc or one of its subsidiaries. © Janus Henderson Group plc.