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ISG Insight: What goes up must come down
Markets have fastened on to some dramatic inflation headlines in recent months but as economic growth comes under pressure is there a risk of policy error?
Why has US money growth slowed?
Treasury “overfunding” of the federal deficit has been a major drag on US money growth but a coming reversal will be offset by Fed QT and a slowdown in bank lending, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Recession-consistent real money weakness
April money / CPI data reinforce gloom about global economic prospects for the remainder of 2022, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
UK recession now odds-on
Real money contraction and weakness in other financial variables suggest a 70% probability of a recession in 2022, argues Simon Ward
Monetary relief for bonds?
Global six-month real narrow money growth fell further below industrial output expansion in March but the gap is likely to narrow as CPI and output momentum cool, a development historically associated with a fall in Treasury yields, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
G7 money trends promising 2023-24 inflation relief
Recent monetary trends, if sustained, are consistent with inflation rates returning to target by 2024, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Global Perspectives Podcast: How much is stagflation a concern for REITs?
Views on the impact of stagflation concerns, rising rates and higher input costs on the real estate investment trusts (REITs) sector.
Five questions fixed income investors are asking in 2022
Our fixed income teams consider monetary policy-related conundrums and where, outside of policy, they see opportunities and risks for investors.
Opposing Forces
A look at potential economic outcomes as central banks seek to maintain growth while stamping on inflation.
Caution Merited in an Increasingly Uncertain Market
Bond investors should exercise caution as accelerating inflation has increased the risk of policy error.
I’ll have one of everything, please The case for a more diversified fixed income portfolio
What is the outlook for economic growth and how can investors ride out the risks?
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – April 2022
Monetary indicators remain cautionary and similar conditions historically have been associated with relative resilience of defensive sectors, high income yield and quality, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.