MARKET GPS
Investment Outlook 2020
What are the most pressing issues facing investors globally and how will they evolve in the year ahead? Our asset class heads provide their views on the investment themes to watch in 2020.
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UK economic weakness masked by government spending surge
UK GDP grew by a slightly firmer than expected 1.4% in 2019 as a whole but the expenditure breakdown gives little cause for celebration.
OECD leading indicators: fade the pick-up
The OECD’s leading indicators continued to recover in December but the signal should be discounted.
Has the virus shock improved monetary prospects?
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index reached a 13-month high in January but narrow money trends suggested that it was on course to peak around April and relapse into mid-year.
Chinese PMI softening before virus hit
Chinese recovery hopes were boosted by a rise in the Markit manufacturing PMI to a 35-month high in November.
Market GPS Investment Outlook 2020
What are the most pressing issues facing investors globally and how will they evolve in the year ahead? Our asset class heads provide their views on the investment themes to watch in 2020.
Is US monetary strength reversing?
US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019.
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UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut
UK rate cut sceptics argue that a rise of 135.000, or 0.5%, in the number of employees in the three months to November from the prior three months signals a strong labour market and will give MPC doves a reason to climb down.
Chinese firms less downbeat on credit conditions
A fall in Chinese money growth during H2 2019, especially in real terms, suggests that the economy will remain weak through H1 2020.
Early 2020 money data key for global outlook
Six-month growth of global (i.e. G7 plus E7) real narrow money is estimated to have been unchanged at 2.4% (not annualised) in December, based on monetary data covering 70% of the aggregate and near-complete CPI inflation data.
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Chinese nominal GDP confusion: slowdown confirmed
The Chinese GDP numbers released on Friday appeared to show a strong pick-up in nominal growth in Q4.
Is China recovering?
Chinese official activity data for December mostly surprised positively, echoing an earlier PMI revival.
UK inflation slump piles pressure on tardy MPC
The forecast here a year ago was that the MPC would cut Bank rate to 0.5% during 2019.