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Will US consumers spend their money stash?
High household money balances may not signal pent-up consumer demand, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
ESG: Forks in the road
2022 will be pivotal for ESG investing but there are key questions the industry needs to navigate to deliver hoped-for outcomes.
Fixed Income: The last hurrah
The lagged impact of policy largesse should initially drive earnings and inflation, but as 2022 progresses, a more familiar picture will likely emerge.
ISG Insight: Markets versus policymakers – who’s in charge?
Markets have brought forward tightening expectations, but central banks are sticking to the ‘transitory inflation’ line – for now. Our latest ISG Insight considers who has the better handle on the economic outlook?
Less favourable monetary conditions for markets?
One measure of global “excess” money has recently turned negative, which may signal headwinds for equities and other risk assets, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
A new “monetarist” forecast for UK inflation – November 2021
UK inflation is likely to peak at a higher level than the MPC expects but money trends suggest medium-term relief, assuming no additional boost from exchange rate weakness, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Global 2022 growth hopes fading fast
October money / inflation data suggest that an economic slowdown will extend through Q2 2022, at least, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Is US / Chinese monetary divergence reversing?
Chinese money trends are showing signs of improvement despite the real estate crisis while a US slowdown may extend as a reduction in monetary deficit financing is not fully offset by stronger bank lending, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
More evidence of excessive stockpiling
Slowing industrial demand as panic stockbuilding moderates will offset a temporary output boost from supply constraints easing, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Equities: Can the cycle roll on?
Why the stock market cycle could continue in 2022, despite inflation pressures, slower growth rates and tighter monetary policy.
UK MPC inaction risks sterling inflation boost
The MPC’s communications shambles is of less concern than its continued neglect of monetary trends in setting policy, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Global monetary round-up
Global money trends continue to give a downbeat message for economic prospects but there are hopeful signs in EM Far East economies, while medium-term inflation risks could be starting to recede, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.