第1版

駿利亨德森企業債務指數

企業債務指數是我們首次對全球公司債務趨勢、其投資機遇以及風險進行的長期研究。

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主要研究結果

影片內容(英文版)

Company borrowings around the world surged to a record $8.3 trillion in 2019; that’s up 8.1 % year on year; the fastest increase in at least five years.

It was the US and Switzerland that were the countries that saw the fastest growth of corporate debt; and if we take a country such as Germany, that now sits second behind the US in terms of corporate indebtedness, mainly due to the automotive sector. If you take the example of a company such as Volkswagen, it has almost as much debt as the whole country of South Africa.

So what happened in 2020? Well because of the Covid-19 crisis there's been a huge demand for debt from companies and so far, between January and May of 2020 we've seen $384 billion worth of issuance and we potentially expect by the end of the year, that could actually get up to the $1 trillion mark.

Now debt is not necessarily always a bad thing and it's been really important that those companies have been able to access financing through this period of economic shock. And as long as the companies are able to create earnings and repay on their debt then that's actually when it can be an attractive opportunity, especially at the moment we sort of see the credit cycle having turned and companies are really now going to be on balance sheet repair mode, looking to pay down some of their net debts to readdress their balance sheets.

So what about the opportunities within credit? Well I mean credit corporate credit and corporate debt as an asset class provides an attractive yield. And it's also the case there's a huge number of inefficiencies within the credit market that can be exploited by active managers. The new issue market where new bonds come at a concession to existing bonds is a really great opportunity; and clearly in 2020 with all of this extra issuance, is a really great opportunity.

There's also a number of inefficiencies around different rating spectrums within the credit market between investment grade and high yield and the bonds that move between those fallen angels going down and the rising stars coming back up to investment grade can be a really great opportunity for active managers to exploit.

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詞彙表

術語 定義
債券 債券指是一筆債務。投資者買入債券,一般是在固定年期按固定利率向借款人提供資金。債券可以在金融市場買賣,其價值隨著時間及視乎市況變化而有所改變。
週期性行業 收入及溢利隨著經濟週期而升跌的行業
EBIT 扣除利息及稅項前的盈利,一般稱為經營溢利。
股權 一間公司的資產悉數變現並出售全部資產後,股東可獲分派的餘下金額。
負債權益比率 資產負債表的債務對股權融資之比率(而非對股份市值之比率),亦稱為負債權益比率。
槓桿 資產負債表的債務對股權融資之比率(而非對股份市值之比率),亦稱為槓桿。
淨債務 所有借貸減任何現金或現金等價物。
現時收益率 債券派息除以目前的市場價值。
波動性 快速、難以預測且多變。
到期收益率 債券派息除以目前的市場價值,已計及債券到期償還時產生的本金獲利或虧損。

駿利亨德森企業債務指數, 第一版(英文版)