Key takeaways:
- A strengthening U.S. economy compelled the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate for the first time in three years, backing the hawkish rhetoric of the nascent Warsh era with action.
- Strong consumption and artificial intelligence (AI)-related investment in the U.S. have been drivers of economic growth – and inflation – with the Fed now acknowledging that expansion rather than energy prices is likely the main source of higher prices.
- In other regions, energy-related inflation is a factor behind increasingly restrictive policy, and with major central banks likely still having work to do in containing prices, we believe investors should maintain a cautious stance toward duration, globally.
There was much more at stake today than a 25 basis-point (bps) rate hike into a resilient U.S. economy. Rather, the nascent Warsh Fed, in our view, needed to take action that matched the hawkish rhetoric it has conveyed over the past two and a half months. A unanimous decision to raise the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, along with intimations that this was likely the beginning of a modest hiking cycle rather than a one-off event, was likely a significant step in achieving that.
We view this decision as potentially pivotal with respect to how investors approach sourcing duration, credit risk, and geographical exposure within their fixed income allocations. As evidenced by the surge in U.S. Treasury yields over the course of the summer, investors have had much on their minds. Elevated energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have been partly responsible for stalling progress on lowering inflation. High fiscal deficits and sovereign debt loads have exerted upward pressure on bond yields in many advanced economies.
But within the U.S. specifically, investors have spent much of the past few months attempting to ascertain what would ultimately trigger the Fed to take action to regain momentum on reducing inflation in what Chairman Kevin Warsh described as an economy growing at a solid pace. Absent action, the U.S. central bank would be at risk of denting its credibility in a manner that could unmoor inflation expectations and materially force a repricing of risk across financial markets.
What the data – and Fed members – say
If a unanimous decision wasn’t enough to convey assertiveness by the Fed, changes to an updated Summary of Economic Projects (which Chairman Warsh has yet to vanquish) further clarified the point that it views monetary policy not sufficiently restrictive to get inflation back on track toward its 2.0% target.
Contributors to the survey upgraded economic growth for this year and 2027 to 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. After a wobbly 2025, the labor market is expected to remain tight into 2029, with unemployment averaging a meager 4.1% in each year. And in perhaps the most relevant response, 2026 headline and core inflation were each upgraded 10 bps to 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. Accordingly, the median expectation is for another hike by the end of this year. And while the median estimate is for rates to stay steady in 2027, eight respondents indicated an additional hike could be necessary by the end of that year.
This hawkish assessment is underpinned by a series of recent data releases. Within the Consumer Price Index, the important core services category accelerated in August. Meanwhile, forward-looking initial jobless claims have averaged a healthy 211,000 over 2026. Consumer strength was further reflected in Wednesday morning’s release of August retail sales, which exceeded consensus expectations. With Chairman Warsh reiterating that the Fed is prioritizing price stability, the previous upper limit of the Fed’s policy range being only 40 bps higher than core inflation as measured by the central bank’s favored gauge was not sufficiently restrictive to adequately address this pillar of its dual mandate.
A matter of credibility
Like the market, the Fed must factor in a host of complexities and unknowns prevalent in the global economy. Deglobalization has unleashed the inflationary forces of trade restrictions. Armed conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine is straining supplies of key industrial and agricultural inputs. Within the U.S., the AI buildout is increasing demand for land, labor, and resources, putting further upward pressure on prices in an already resilient economy.
Staying with AI, competition for capital among technology hyperscalers is another factor pushing aggregate bond yields higher. This latter development has the potential to mask the signals typically reflected in U.S. Treasury yields with respect to economic growth prospects and investors’ assessment of the government’s fiscal position – an important metric to monitor in an era of chronic deficits and rising federal debt.
These are also the factors that the Fed wants the market to assess rather than take cues from forward guidance. Many of these – namely commodity price shocks – are beyond what monetary policy typically can influence. What it historically has been able to do, however, is influence aggregate demand by raising the cost of capital. With the U.S. economy possibly accelerating, the Fed believes it must now tap the brakes over the next few quarters. Whether that works depends not only on some of the aforementioned exogenous factors but also on how sensitive the U.S. economy is to interest rates relative to past cycles. This point has been a subject of recent academic debate.
A step but not an “all clear” sign
We believe this decision by the Fed – along with what’s being broadly interpreted as a hawkish statement – should be cautiously welcomed by the market. With action now backing up words on the Fed’s commitment to price stability, investors possibly have one fewer reason to look over their shoulder as they navigate a very dynamic global economic environment.
Even following the first hike since 2023, we believe it’s still too early for investors to lean into duration. As stated, many of the factors at play are beyond the purview of monetary policy. Warsh’s hypothesis that AI could release a disinflationary productivity boom has yet to be tested. Meanwhile, AI capital expenditure – possibly as far as the eye can see – will likely add fuel to price pressures caused by strong personal consumption. This risk is reflected in futures markets pricing in more rate hikes over the next nine months than they had prior to today’s hawkish decision.
Elsewhere, pockets of Europe and Asia remain vulnerable to price instability emanating from regions of conflict with scant sign of lasting resolution. Typically, we believe investors can opportunistically source duration in regions where slowing growth and falling inflation may portend a rate cut. Over the past several months, however, conditions have coalesced around the need for more restrictive policy in most major economies. Whether such tightening was a factor in the Fed’s decision to hike rates today, we will never know.
Yet with front-end yields having been quick to anticipate tighter policy, bond investors have the potential to earn attractive income streams without increasing interest rate exposure. Across the geographies our fixed income teams cover, we believe relatively conservative duration positioning is merited until the market gains greater visibility into how geopolitics, technology, and even fiscal discipline impact the future investment environment.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate, inflation, credit and default risk. The bond market is volatile. As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if an issuer fails to make timely payments or its credit strength weakens.
Monetary policy: The policies of a central bank, aimed at influencing the level of inflation and growth in an economy. Monetary policy tools include setting interest rates and controlling the supply of money.
Yield: The level of income on a security over a set period, typically expressed as a percentage rate.
Yield curve: A yield curve plots the yields (interest rate) of bonds with equal credit quality but differing maturity dates.