Chart to Watch: All eyes on homebuilder inventory shift
New home inventory has hit recession-level highs, but builders are responding. See how falling construction starts could pave the way for inventory relief and market stabilization.
3 minute read
Key takeaways:
- Homebuilders have cut housing starts by -14% since February as the monthly housing supply reached over nine months, approaching recession-level inventory buildup.
- Reduced housing starts typically precede inventory normalization, creating early-cycle investment opportunities as homebuilder stocks have potential to outperform before fundamentals visibly improve.
- We’re monitoring homebuilder fundamentals and housing sector trends for confirmation that inventory moderation is taking hold and a potential cycle recovery is sustainable.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Homebuilder stocks have rebounded and outperformed the S&P 500® Index by roughly 11% over the last three months following a period of underperformance dating back to September 2024.1
What’s driving investor optimism? We’re finally seeing builders react to extreme supply levels. The monthly supply of new houses in the U.S. (black line, left axis) has been trending higher since early 2024 and sitting above nine months since May. This level approaches what we typically see during recessions. New home inventory has jumped as existing home inventory and sales have fallen, with affordability hitting 30-year lows.
Housing starts (orange line, right axis), meanwhile, have declined -14% since February. Why does this matter? Fewer starts are a precursor to inventory moderation. Historically, we’ve seen housing starts decline in reaction to increases in monthly supply, particularly during economic downturns (shaded area indicates U.S. recessions). A gradual pullback in starts should help relieve supply pressure, assuming demand continues at a decent pace.
We’ve also seen mortgage rates ease to a 10-month low of 6.56%. This should help from a demand dynamic, but likely continue to hold back existing home supply as current mortgage holders have rates averaging around 4%. Rates may need to fall to around 5% to meaningfully unlock existing supply, which should allow homebuilders to continue to compete unencumbered by significant increases in existing home inventory.
Historically, we’ve observed an inverse correlation between peaks in new home inventory and when homebuilders typically begin to outperform. This early cycle behavior suggests builders may be entering a new growth phase, though this outlook needs confirmation through improving fundamentals. This dynamic extends beyond homebuilders to related industries like home improvement and furniture, where high mortgage rates and affordability constraints have pressured big-ticket purchases.
We turned more cautious on homebuilders in late 2024 due to supply growth concerns, but now the precursor for inventory moderation – fewer starts – is in place. The market is anticipating relief and is not going to wait for inventories to get in line. While some investors are jumping ahead and anticipating the cycle turn, more time may be needed before confirming the next growth phase.
1 Source Bloomberg. Total return over three-month period 30 May 2025 to 29 August 2025. S&P 500 Index compared to S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index.
Correlation measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. A value of 1.0 implies movement in parallel, -1.0 implies movement in opposite directions, and 0.0 implies no relationship.
S&P 500® Index reflects U.S. large-cap equity performance and represents broad U.S. equity market performance.
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3 minute read
Key takeaways:
- Homebuilders have cut housing starts by -14% since February as the monthly housing supply reached over nine months, approaching recession-level inventory buildup.
- Reduced housing starts typically precede inventory normalization, creating early-cycle investment opportunities as homebuilder stocks have potential to outperform before fundamentals visibly improve.
- We’re monitoring homebuilder fundamentals and housing sector trends for confirmation that inventory moderation is taking hold and a potential cycle recovery is sustainable.
