Global Perspectives

Global Snapshot

The Janus Henderson Global Snapshot explores the themes driving markets, the trends to watch, market returns and metrics, and the Multi-Asset Team’s outlook for regions and sectors at quarter end.

Equity Perspectives

Quarterly insight from our equity teams to help clients navigate the markets and opportunities ahead.

Global Dividend Index

The first of its kind, quarterly, long-term study into global dividend trends.

Janus Henderson Corporate Debt Index

The Corporate Debt Index is the first edition in a long-term study into trends in company indebtedness around the world, the investment opportunities this provides and the risks it presents.

Fixed Income Perspectives

Quarterly insight from our fixed income teams to help clients navigate the risks and opportunities ahead.

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More reasons for optimism in US Q2 sector accounts
Global Perspectives

More reasons for optimism in US Q2 sector accounts

Strong household money growth and stable corporate finances are hopeful features of the latest US quarterly financial accounts, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global V scenario moving from forecast to fact
Global Perspectives

Global V scenario moving from forecast to fact

Successive V-shaped recoveries are playing out in global economic aggregates, with labour market recuperation likely to follow, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Why the cyclicals rally could extend
Global Perspectives

Why the cyclicals rally could extend

Traditional cyclical equity market sectors could sustain their outperformance of defensive sectors and start to overtake tech, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” inflation forecast
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” inflation forecast

G7 inflation could rise to 4-5% in 2021-22 barring a rapid reversal of the recent surge in broad money, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Don’t call it a recession
Global Perspectives

Don’t call it a recession

The recent output contraction was government-imposed and did not constitute a recession as properly defined, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

OECD leading indicators recovering, note statistical meddling
Global Perspectives

OECD leading indicators recovering, note statistical meddling

The OECD’s leading indicators are giving a recovery signal but users should be aware of a recent methodological change that has increased monthly volatility, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Industrial output rebound bullish for equity earnings
Global Perspectives

Industrial output rebound bullish for equity earnings

Unprecedented GDP falls greatly exaggerate damage to equity market earnings, which are geared to rebounding industrial output, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global monetary update: money growth still strong, lending slowdown to extend
Global Perspectives

Global monetary update: money growth still strong, lending slowdown to extend

Global monetary acceleration since early 2020 argues for an inflation pick-up in 2021-22 but the increase could prove temporary if money growth now normalises, argues Economic Adviser Simon Ward.

Will industrial commodity prices surge?
Global Perspectives

Will industrial commodity prices surge?

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser, argues that attempts to rebuild inventories against a backdrop of “excess” money could result in a sharp rise in commodity prices into 2021, complicating central bankers’ plans to maintain super-easy monetary policies.

Lagging Chinese money growth isn’t concerning

Lagging Chinese money growth isn’t concerning

Money measures have surged in most major economies. Narrow money outperforms broad money as a leading indicator of economic activity. Annual growth of the official M1 measure in June was 35.9% in the US, 22.0% in Canada, 15.2% in the UK, 12.6% in the Eurozone and 12.3% in Japan.

Equities / cash switching rule update
Global Perspectives

Equities / cash switching rule update

The “monetarist” equities / cash switching rule followed here recommends unhedged global equities (MSCI World index) only when the following two conditions are satisfied:
1. Six-month change in global (i.e. G7 plus E7*) real narrow money above six-month change in industrial output;
2. 12-month change in global real narrow money above slow moving average (currently at 5.6%).

Still looks like a “V”
Global Perspectives

Still looks like a “V”

The central view here remains that the global economy is staging a V-shaped recovery – or an italic V, at least – from the covid shock (not recession), with industrial output / GDP likely to regain pre-crisis levels in late 2020 / early 2021.