Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.
US corporate profits have been inflated by stock appreciation, reduced overreporting of depreciation and government subsidies. The consensus forecast for S&P 500 earnings may understate the coming drag as these temporary influences fade.
The retail prices index is giving a more worrying message about inflationary pressures because it incorporates house prices and has been less affected by changes in basket weights, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Q3 monetary data will be key for assessing whether a likely near-term global industrial slowdown represents a temporary pause of the beginning of a larger downswing, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Economic growth is likely to disappoint in H2 2021 but Chinese policy easing could contribute to a recovery in global real money expansion, improving prospects for H1 2022, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.