Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.
Treasury “overfunding” of the federal deficit has been a major drag on US money growth but a coming reversal will be offset by Fed QT and a slowdown in bank lending, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Global six-month real narrow money growth fell further below industrial output expansion in March but the gap is likely to narrow as CPI and output momentum cool, a development historically associated with a fall in Treasury yields, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Monetary indicators remain cautionary and similar conditions historically have been associated with relative resilience of defensive sectors, high income yield and quality, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Policy laxity in the mid-1970s allowed high inflation to become entrenched but central banks have already engineered an effective tightening and money trends suggest that planned rate hikes will result in overrestriction, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.