Portfolio Manager Daniel Graña explains that in light of the retreat from further global economic integration, reformist policies and value-added services are likely to become future drivers of emerging market growth and investment returns.
Geopolitics are often an important consideration when investing in emerging market (EM) stocks, the upcoming US election included. But regardless of who takes the White House in November, the next administration is likely to continue down a path of deglobalization, with important considerations for EM investors, says Emerging Market Equity Portfolio Manager Daniel Graña.
Money measures have surged in most major economies. Narrow money outperforms broad money as a leading indicator of economic activity. Annual growth of the official M1 measure in June was 35.9% in the US, 22.0% in Canada, 15.2% in the UK, 12.6% in the Eurozone and 12.3% in Japan.
The global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle is judged here to have bottomed in H1 2020, probably Q1. The cycle acted as a drag on global economic momentum in 2018-19 but is now scheduled to provide a tailwind at least through end-2021.
May Ling Wee, China equities portfolio manager, provides evidence that a resumption of economic activity is underfoot in China and discusses the accelerating digitisation of the economy, as well as how both companies and the government are supporting consumers and businesses.
Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode from the UK-based Global Technology Team assess the impact of the coronavirus on tech companies and shares their near-term views for the sector, as well as portfolio implications.