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Simon Ward

Economic Adviser
Simon Ward | Janus Henderson Investors

Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Is the inventory cycle peaking?

Is the inventory cycle peaking?

Companies will rebuild inventories during H2 but economic momentum is related to their rate of change, which may already be at or close to a maximum, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global monetary update: ongoing slowdown, China bottoming?

Global monetary update: ongoing slowdown, China bottoming?

Global money trends continue to suggest downside risk to consensus H2 growth forecasts but support could be coming from Chinese policy easing, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Are Fed / ECB balance sheet shifts driving EUR / USD?

Are Fed / ECB balance sheet shifts driving EUR / USD?

The recent rebound in EUR / USD may reflect an excess supply of dollars due to increased Fed net lending to the government but the tables may turn in H2, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

UK inflation forecast update: still on track for 3%+

UK inflation forecast update: still on track for 3%+

CPI inflation is likely to overshoot the Bank of England’s (raised) forecast for Q4 2021, reflecting stronger food prices, a larger-than-expected VAT normalisation effect and rising core pressure stemming from monetary excess, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Equity market “internals” consistent with PMI peak

Equity market “internals” consistent with PMI peak

Sector and style behaviour within equity markets has become more defensive, consistent with a cautionary message for economic prospects from monetary trends, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Chinese money growth still sliding – PBoC policy shift ahead?

Chinese money growth still sliding – PBoC policy shift ahead?

Chinese economic growth has fallen short of forecasts so far in 2021 and monetary trends suggest further weakness without PBoC action, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global manufacturing PMI peak delayed, relapse still likely
Global Perspectives

Global manufacturing PMI peak delayed, relapse still likely

Further PMI strength in April likely reflects temporary factors and the monetary signal for future direction remains negative, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Profits forecasts at risk from waning government support
Global Perspectives

Profits forecasts at risk from waning government support

Corporation taxes may be on the rise but a withdrawal of pandemic-related subsidies is a more immediate threat to profits optimism, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global money trends still cautionary
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still cautionary

Global money growth continues to cool, suggesting downside risk to optimistic consensus economic growth forecasts, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – April 2021
Global Perspectives

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – April 2021

Markets face monetary headwinds and a near-term industrial slowdown could dent earnings expectations, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Monetary financing fuels red-hot UK money growth
Global Perspectives

Monetary financing fuels red-hot UK money growth

UK money growth is pulling ahead of other majors, warranting relative economic optimism but concern about sterling and inflation, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global money trends still cooling before US fiscal boost
Global Perspectives

Global money trends still cooling before US fiscal boost

Strong March PMIs reflect fast money growth in mid-2020 and industrial momentum is probably peaking, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.