How have US stocks fared in 2024?
The US led the world’s markets over the year. This was driven by strong earnings and resilient economic growth. Perhaps predictably, technology and communication services stocks gained most in earnings and share price terms. However, there were also significant gains seen in “cyclical” sectors – those expected to be more impacted by the economic cycle. Both financial and industrial stocks saw price and earnings rises in the year.
However, it’s important to note that the S&P 500 share index has risen more in 2024 than the earnings of the companies within it have grown. As such, selectivity is important in sectors, and within sectors, where valuations have expanded. A company’s ability to deliver growth that justifies its valuation may be a key determinate of performance in 2025.
How is the US economy positioned for 2025?
The prospect of rising consumer spending and improving labour productivity are both positive for US markets. Consumers have seen real wage growth, higher interest earned on cash and stock market gains, which could mean rising spending lies ahead. At the same time, we believe that mass layoffs are unlikely as companies are reporting healthy profit margins. There is also room for the Federal Reserve to support the economy more if needed.
A particularly encouraging development is the recent resurgence in labour productivity. This enables companies to increase wages while maintaining profit margins. This means that labour productivity is supportive of consumer spending, which is a crucial support for the overall economy.
Where have you found opportunities for The North American Income Trust?
We believe that AI remains a compelling theme in the US. There has been some volatility in tech stocks, but the move towards improving labour productivity is just one of the supportive factors for this segment. This is a cross-sector transition, seen in industries as diverse as healthcare, e-commerce, finance and energy.
In order to gain exposure to the AI trade, we have initiated positions in Dell, Microsoft and Google and increased our position in Broadcom, among others.
We also have a positive view on healthcare stocks. In this category, we lean towards biotech and medical device companies as the innovation in these sectors could lead to significant growth through new treatments.
Elsewhere, we have allocated towards consumer services and financial services, which would both benefit from a rise in consumer activity. As a trust that is explicitly looking to generate an attractive dividend yield, utilities companies have also caught our eye this year. Widespread electrification should drive higher earnings growth into the future.
Generally speaking, we continue to look for a combination of companies offering attractive dividend yields and those positioned for earnings and dividend growth. By seeking out innovation, we aim to capture future dividends, even as we benefit from our existing yielders.
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Cyclical stocks
Companies that sell discretionary consumer items (such as cars), or industries highly sensitive to changes in the economy (eg. mining).
Dividend
A variable discretionary payment made by a company to its shareholders.
Earnings per share (EPS)
EPS is the bottom-line measure of a company’s profitability, defined as net income (profit after tax) divided by the number of outstanding shares.
Economic cycle
The fluctuation of the economy between expansion (growth) and contraction (recession), commonly measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). It is influenced by many factors, including household, government and business spending, trade, technology and central bank policy. The economic cycle consists of four recognised stages. ‘Early cycle’ is when the economy transitions from recession to recovery; ‘mid-cycle’ is the subsequent period of positive (but more moderate) growth. In the ‘late cycle’, growth slows as the economy reaches its full potential, wages start to rise and inflation begins to pick up, leading to lower demand, falling corporate earnings and eventually the fourth stage – recession.
Index
A statistical measure of group of basket of securities, or other financial instruments. For example, the S&P 500 Index indicates the performance of the largest 500 US companies’ stocks. Each index has its own calculation method, usually expressed as a change from a base value.
Profit margin
The amount by which the sales of a product or service exceeds business and production costs.
Share price
The price to purchase (or sell) one share in a company, not including fees or taxes.
Valuation metrics
Metrics used to gauge a company’s performance, financial health and expectations for future earnings, eg. price to earnings (P/E) ratio and return on equity (ROE).
Volatility
The rate and extent at which the price of a portfolio, security or index, moves up and down. If the price swings up and down with large movements, it has high volatility. If the price moves more slowly and to a lesser extent, it has lower volatility. The higher the volatility the higher the risk of the investment.
Yield
The level of income on a security over a set period, typically expressed as a percentage rate. For equities, a common measure is the dividend yield, which divides recent dividend payments for each share by the share price. For a bond, this is calculated as the coupon payment divided by the current bond price. For investment trusts: Calculated by dividing the current financial year’s dividends per share (this will include prospective dividends) by the current price per share, then multiplying by 100 to arrive at a percentage figure.
These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.
Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this article, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved, you may wish to consult a financial adviser. Please refer to the AIFMD Disclosure document and Annual Report of the AIF before making any final investment decisions. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change.
Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.
There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised.
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