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Simon Ward

Economic Adviser

Simon is a partner at NS Partners LLP and is Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson Investors in London, a role he has held since 2009. He previously worked at New Star Institutional Managers, Lombard Street Research and Bank Julius Baer. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge University and Birkbeck College, London.

Articles Written

Will Truss largesse reverse dangerously weak UK money trends?

Will Truss largesse reverse dangerously weak UK money trends?

The Bank of England should wait to assess the monetary implications of fiscal loosening before responding with further tightening, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Is the high yield rally sustainable?

Is the high yield rally sustainable?

Several indicators suggest further credit market turbulence ahead, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

US banks signalling H2 credit crunch
Features & Outlooks

US banks signalling H2 credit crunch

Actual and expected credit tightening is consistent with a recessionary scenario, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global money trends signalling policy overkill
Features & Outlooks

Global money trends signalling policy overkill

June money data confirm a grim economic outlook and rising medium-term deflation risk, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Recessionary dynamics
Features & Outlooks

Recessionary dynamics

The consensus was complacent about recession risk and is now underestimating its likely severity, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

More recession-consistent US data
Features & Outlooks

More recession-consistent US data

The recent pace of decline of the OECD’s reliable US leading indicator is on a par with prior downturns, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Stockbuilding data add to recession concerns
Features & Outlooks

Stockbuilding data add to recession concerns

G7 stockbuilding rose to a joint record share of GDP in Q1 and a prospective normalisation will act as a major drag on global growth, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

More recessionary monetary news
Features & Outlooks

More recessionary monetary news

Sharp slowdowns in nominal money growth in the US / Eurozone suggest that a real money squeeze will extend despite a likely pullback in CPI momentum, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Why has US money growth slowed?
Features & Outlooks

Why has US money growth slowed?

Treasury “overfunding” of the federal deficit has been a major drag on US money growth but a coming reversal will be offset by Fed QT and a slowdown in bank lending, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Recession-consistent real money weakness
Features & Outlooks

Recession-consistent real money weakness

April money / CPI data reinforce gloom about global economic prospects for the remainder of 2022, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

UK recession now odds-on
Features & Outlooks

UK recession now odds-on

Real money contraction and weakness in other financial variables suggest a 70% probability of a recession in 2022, argues Simon Ward

Monetary relief for bonds?
Features & Outlooks

Monetary relief for bonds?

Global six-month real narrow money growth fell further below industrial output expansion in March but the gap is likely to narrow as CPI and output momentum cool, a development historically associated with a fall in Treasury yields, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.