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UK recession now odds-on
Real money contraction and weakness in other financial variables suggest a 70% probability of a recession in 2022, argues Simon Ward
Monetary relief for bonds?
Global six-month real narrow money growth fell further below industrial output expansion in March but the gap is likely to narrow as CPI and output momentum cool, a development historically associated with a fall in Treasury yields, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
G7 money trends promising 2023-24 inflation relief
Recent monetary trends, if sustained, are consistent with inflation rates returning to target by 2024, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
Global Perspectives Podcast: How much is stagflation a concern for REITs?
Views on the impact of stagflation concerns, rising rates and higher input costs on the real estate investment trusts (REITs) sector.
Five questions fixed income investors are asking in 2022
Our fixed income teams consider monetary policy-related conundrums and where, outside of policy, they see opportunities and risks for investors.
Opposing Forces
A look at potential economic outcomes as central banks seek to maintain growth while stamping on inflation.
Caution Merited in an Increasingly Uncertain Market
Bond investors should exercise caution as accelerating inflation has increased the risk of policy error.
I’ll have one of everything, please The case for a more diversified fixed income portfolio
What is the outlook for economic growth and how can investors ride out the risks?
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – April 2022
Monetary indicators remain cautionary and similar conditions historically have been associated with relative resilience of defensive sectors, high income yield and quality, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.
How do ESG factors impact valuations within the technology sector?
Key findings from a study exploring the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and tech company valuations.
Revisiting U.S. Growth in a Challenging Environment
The outlook for growth equities as market dynamics shift.
Can Biotech Bounce Back?
For more than a year, biotechnology stocks have been deep in the red, even as medical breakthroughs continue – a disconnect we think is unlikely to last.