The stabilisation of US economic growth amid unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has raised questions about the likelihood of inflation returning. Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, and Andrew Mulliner, Head of Global Aggregate Strategies, both members of the Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group (ISG)*, explain why they do not see significant risks of sustained higher inflation materialising in the next few years, though caution that short-term spikes are possible and investors should evaluate the diversity that their fixed income portfolios provide.
Tom Ross, corporate credit manager, discusses conditions in the high yield market, including the default outlook, the importance of monetary and fiscal stimulus and whether high yield can tolerate inflation.
Head of US Fixed Income, Greg Wilensky, cautions that uncertainty is likely to remain elevated as we approach 3 November 2020, and thus it may be prudent to remain diversified and keep risk levels close to long-term targets.
Elissa Johnson, Portfolio Manager and secured loans specialist within the Secured Credit Team, provides a brief analysis of the current state of US and European loan markets, finding that they signal different outlooks.
Nick Maroutsos, Co-Head of Global Bonds, believes that despite a shift in policy, the US Federal Reserve will likely not have to worry about watching inflation climb above its target of averaging 2% over the long term.
Portfolio Manager Dan Siluk explains that, despite economic conditions appearing to stabilise throughout much of Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia felt compelled to recommence bond purchases to establish its credibility with respect to its yield curve control programme.
Janus Henderson’s Investment Strategy Group (ISG) brings together investment professionals from our global fixed income platform and other Janus Henderson teams, providing a forum for research and debate. The ISG recently met to discuss the outlook for bond markets and concluded that economic growth is likely to remain modest in the quarters ahead.
Head of Global Bonds Nick Maroutsos describes the Fed decision in July to hold rates steady as a non-event given that the central bank, through its actions, has already proven its willingness to do whatever it takes to support the US economy during this unprecedented period.
Colin Fleury, Head of Secured Credit, London, and Denis Struc and Ian Bettney, portfolio managers within the Secured Credit Team, discuss the merits of an allocation to asset‑backed securities (ABS) within diverse multi‑sector credit portfolios.
With economies gradually reopening and markets suggesting better times ahead, credit portfolio managers James Briggs and Tim Winstone consider whether investors should be increasing their allocation to investment grade credit.