Quick View: Bank of England – Do no harm
Jenna Barnard reflects on the Bank of England’s September policy decision which appears designed to inflict no further negative surprises on a fragile gilt market.
2 minute read
Key takeaways:
- The Bank of England (BoE) held rates at 4% as the market anticipated, but the real interest was the widely expected decision to slow the annual shrinking of the balance sheet from £100bn to £70bn.
- Stubborn inflation in the UK is staying the BoE’s hand and comes against a backdrop of concerns about heavy borrowing from the UK government that is putting upward pressure on gilt yields.
- The decision on quantitative tightening was in line with market expectations. The BoE appears keen to inflict no further negative surprise on a fragile government bond market.
Having squeaked through a cut in interest rates to 4% at the their 7th August meeting with a tight 5-4 vote, the market has priced out additional interest rate cuts this year from the Bank of England (BoE) and Gilts have continued to underperform their US counterparts. Indeed, UK activity data since last month’s meeting has been resilient with employment, in particular, showing stabilisation whilst inflation remains far too high for comfort both on a headline and core basis and increasingly divergent versus the rest of the developed world. The economic fundamentals underpinning the UK government bond market do look materially trickier than many other developed economies as a result of this higher inflation backdrop: no longer the laggard in disinflation because the UK is increasingly looking like a structural outlier.
As a result, the September policy meeting was never about rate cuts but rather the decision around quantitative tightening (QT) – the amount and the skew towards long dated bonds. Long dated government bonds traded very poorly through August into early September. The extreme fragility of this part of the Gilt market resulted in further Debt Management Office (DMO) intervention in early September with the announcement of the cancellation of a long bond which had been scheduled for December 2025. The DMO has responded aggressively to the lack of demand for long dated Gilts by skewing issuance away from this part of the yield curve. The question going into the BoE meeting was whether they would respond too?
Given the fragility of the Gilt market, the BoE appears to have stuck as close as possible to market consensus expectations for fear of causing further volatility: £70 billion in total QT and continuing to underweight long bond sales “to better reflect demand conditions” at 20% of total sales. The Gilt market reaction has been predictably muted as a result. This is a central bank that really does not want to cause any surprises for a fragile bond market.
Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate, inflation, credit and default risk. The bond market is volatile. As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if an issuer fails to make timely payments or its credit strength weakens.
Debt Management Office (DMO): An agency of HM Treasury in the UK, responsible for the debt and cash management of the UK government.
Fiscal/Fiscal policy: Describes government policy relating to setting tax rates and spending levels. Fiscal deficit represents the gap between government revenues and spending. A deficit implies that state sector spending exceeds the revenues collected in a given year.
Gilt: A bond issued by the UK Government. Their name derives from the fact that early forms of the bonds were issued as certificates with gilt-edges.
Inflation: The rate at which prices of goods and services are rising in the economy. Core Inflation are price indices that exclude volatile items, typically food and energy.
Issuance: The act of making bonds available to investors by the borrowing (issuing) company, typically through a sale of bonds to the public or financial institutions.
Maturity: The maturity date of a bond is when the principal investment (and any final income payment) is paid to investors. Shorter-dated bonds generally mature within five years, medium-term bonds within five to 10 years, and longer-dated bonds after 10+ years.
Monetary policy: The policies of a central bank, aimed at influencing the level of inflation and growth in an economy. Monetary policy tools include setting interest rates and controlling the supply of money.
Quantitative tightening: A monetary policy tool used by central banks to decrease the money supply by either selling government securities, or letting then mature and removing them from its cash balances.
Yield: The level of income on a security over a set period, typically expressed as a percentage rate.
Yield curve: A graph that plots the yields of government bonds against their maturities. Normally, the yield curve is upward sloping, where yields for shorter-maturity bonds are lower than yields for bonds with a longer maturity.
These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.
Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.
There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised.
Marketing Communication.
Important information
Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- The Fund invests in high yield (non-investment grade) bonds and while these generally offer higher rates of interest than investment grade bonds, they are more speculative and more sensitive to adverse changes in market conditions.
- Some bonds (callable bonds) allow their issuers the right to repay capital early or to extend the maturity. Issuers may exercise these rights when favourable to them and as a result the value of the Fund may be impacted.
- If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- CoCos can fall sharply in value if the financial strength of an issuer weakens and a predetermined trigger event causes the bonds to be converted into shares/units of the issuer or to be partly or wholly written off.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different bonds will be affected differently. In particular, bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise or are expected to rise. This is especially true for bonds with a higher sensitivity to interest rate changes. A material portion of the fund may be invested in such bonds (or bond derivatives), so rising interest rates may have a negative impact on fund returns.
Specific risks
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall. High yielding (non-investment grade) bonds are more speculative and more sensitive to adverse changes in market conditions.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- Some bonds (callable bonds) allow their issuers the right to repay capital early or to extend the maturity. Issuers may exercise these rights when favourable to them and as a result the value of the Fund may be impacted.
- Emerging markets expose the Fund to higher volatility and greater risk of loss than developed markets; they are susceptible to adverse political and economic events, and may be less well regulated with less robust custody and settlement procedures.
- The Fund may invest in onshore bonds via Bond Connect. This may introduce additional risks including operational, regulatory, liquidity and settlement risks.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- If the Fund holds assets in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund, or you invest in a share/unit class of a different currency to the Fund (unless hedged, i.e. mitigated by taking an offsetting position in a related security), the value of your investment may be impacted by changes in exchange rates.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- CoCos can fall sharply in value if the financial strength of an issuer weakens and a predetermined trigger event causes the bonds to be converted into shares/units of the issuer or to be partly or wholly written off.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
- The Fund invests in Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and other forms of securitised investments, which may be subject to greater credit / default, liquidity, interest rate and prepayment and extension risks, compared to other investments such as government or corporate issued bonds and this may negatively impact the realised return on investment in the securities.
Specific risks
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- The Fund invests in high yield (non-investment grade) bonds and while these generally offer higher rates of interest than investment grade bonds, they are more speculative and more sensitive to adverse changes in market conditions.
- If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- CoCos can fall sharply in value if the financial strength of an issuer weakens and a predetermined trigger event causes the bonds to be converted into shares/units of the issuer or to be partly or wholly written off.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different bonds will be affected differently. In particular, bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise or are expected to rise. This is especially true for bonds with a higher sensitivity to interest rate changes. A material portion of the fund may be invested in such bonds (or bond derivatives), so rising interest rates may have a negative impact on fund returns.
Specific risks
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- The Fund invests in high yield (non-investment grade) bonds and while these generally offer higher rates of interest than investment grade bonds, they are more speculative and more sensitive to adverse changes in market conditions.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- Some or all of the ongoing charges may be taken from capital, which may erode capital or reduce potential for capital growth.
- CoCos can fall sharply in value if the financial strength of an issuer weakens and a predetermined trigger event causes the bonds to be converted into shares/units of the issuer or to be partly or wholly written off.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different bonds will be affected differently. In particular, bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise or are expected to rise. This is especially true for bonds with a higher sensitivity to interest rate changes. A material portion of the fund may be invested in such bonds (or bond derivatives), so rising interest rates may have a negative impact on fund returns.
Specific risks
2 minute read
Key takeaways:
- The Bank of England (BoE) held rates at 4% as the market anticipated, but the real interest was the widely expected decision to slow the annual shrinking of the balance sheet from £100bn to £70bn.
- Stubborn inflation in the UK is staying the BoE’s hand and comes against a backdrop of concerns about heavy borrowing from the UK government that is putting upward pressure on gilt yields.
- The decision on quantitative tightening was in line with market expectations. The BoE appears keen to inflict no further negative surprise on a fragile government bond market.