The Euroland manufacturing PMI fell further in July but the view here remains that the index is bottoming, based on the leading signal from a rise in six-month real narrow money growth since late 2018.
Ama Seery, analyst within the global Sustainable and Responsible Investment (SRI) Team headed by Hamish Chamberlayne, examines the explosive demand for cobalt to power new technologies and the many risks associated with its supply.
Geopolitical risk continues to be top of mind for investors, particularly the shifting global balance of power from west to east as showcased by the escalating trade friction between China and the US. Charlie Awdry, China equities portfolio manager and Richard Clode, Global Technology portfolio manager, provide candid views on this evolving issue and its significance on how they invest.
In late 2016, the forecasting approach employed here – relying on monetary and cycle analysis – signalled that the global economy would grow strongly in 2017. A year ago, it suggested that a significant slowdown would unfold during 2018. The current message is that this slowdown is likely to extend and deepen, at least through mid-2019. A recovery in momentum is possible during the second half of the year but such a scenario requires confirmation from stronger monetary trends in early 2019.
Today’s Conference Board consumer survey provides more evidence that economic weakness is spreading to the labour market. An indicator combining consumer assessments of current job-finding difficulty and prospects in six months’ time rose to a 14-month high in June.
Janus Henderson’s US-based Multi-Asset Solutions Team present their latest Tail Risk Report, using market prices to infer expected tail gains and losses for each asset class. In May, signals continued to forewarn that inflation may not be dead.