Market GPS
Investment Outlook 2021
What should be on the radar for investors in 2021? Market GPS helps direction-set with a video summary, in-depth asset class analysis and our latest portfolio manager views.
Latest Insights
Subscribe for relevant insights delivered straight to your inbox
Euroland PMI weak but money trends still hopeful
The Euroland manufacturing PMI fell further in July but the view here remains that the index is bottoming, based on the leading signal from a rise in six-month real narrow money growth since late 2018.
Global money trends still downbeat
Incoming narrow money data for July have been disappointing, suggesting that a global economic recovery will be delayed until Q2 2020.
US profits revision suggesting weaker outlook
The big news in last week’s US GDP release was a huge downward revision to corporate profits growth in recent years.
Cobalt: saying ‘no’ to child labour
Ama Seery, analyst within the global Sustainable and Responsible Investment (SRI) Team headed by Hamish Chamberlayne, examines the explosive demand for cobalt to power new technologies and the many risks associated with its supply.
US C&I loans confirming inventory downswing
Three-month growth of US commercial bank loans and leases fell from 1.5% (6.3% annualised) in February to 0.9% (3.5%) in June, reflecting a sharp slowdown in commercial and industrial (C&I) lending.
Powerplay: geopolitical manoeuvres and their corporate impact
Geopolitical risk continues to be top of mind for investors, particularly the shifting global balance of power from west to east as showcased by the escalating trade friction between China and the US. Charlie Awdry, China equities portfolio manager and Richard Clode, Global Technology portfolio manager, provide candid views on this evolving issue and its significance on how they invest.
Globalisation: Sorry, Donald, it’s here to stay
Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, explains why globalisation is here to stay despite heightened populism.
Same old: UK MPC U-turns after ignoring money trends
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s “sea change” speech this week has laid the foundation for a dovish MPC shift in August.
Global Sector Views: June 2019
Carmel Wellso and the US-based Global Research team share their views on equity markets in the June 2019 edition of Global Sector Views.
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
In late 2016, the forecasting approach employed here – relying on monetary and cycle analysis – signalled that the global economy would grow strongly in 2017. A year ago, it suggested that a significant slowdown would unfold during 2018. The current message is that this slowdown is likely to extend and deepen, at least through mid-2019. A recovery in momentum is possible during the second half of the year but such a scenario requires confirmation from stronger monetary trends in early 2019.
Labour market watch: softer US jobs confidence
Today’s Conference Board consumer survey provides more evidence that economic weakness is spreading to the labour market. An indicator combining consumer assessments of current job-finding difficulty and prospects in six months’ time rose to a 14-month high in June.
Tell Tail Signs: June 2019 – Signs of inflation continue…
Janus Henderson’s US-based Multi-Asset Solutions Team present their latest Tail Risk Report, using market prices to infer expected tail gains and losses for each asset class. In May, signals continued to forewarn that inflation may not be dead.