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Positioned for 2026: Job Curtis on opportunities ahead for UK investors

HHI

Henderson High Income Trust plc

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Positioned for 2026: Job Curtis on opportunities ahead for UK investors

As the City of London Investment Trust marks its 59th consecutive year of dividend growth, fund manager Job Curtis reflects on the past 12 months, the trust’s positioning, and what lies ahead for investors.

2025 was a better year for UK equities than many expected. How did that backdrop shape the trust’s performance?

It was indeed a strong year. The UK market delivered around a 20% total return and even outpaced the US – something we haven’t seen for a while. That reflected the attractive value in UK shares, which have been overlooked for years.

Against this backdrop, City of London Investment Trust (CTY) also outperformed and delivered its 59th consecutive dividend increase, fully covered by earnings. Our largest sector exposure, banks, was a key driver of returns, alongside successful stock-specific decisions.

Income remains a priority for many UK investors. Where did you find the most compelling income opportunities?

Alongside banks, we increased exposure to real estate investment trusts (REITs). Despite a tough period for property markets, we see attractive long-term dynamics in London offices: hybrid work patterns have settled, new supply is limited, and demand is picking up. We added to names such as British Land and Land Securities, where we see improving fundamentals.

We also initiated a position in Big Yellow Group, the UK’s leading self-storage provider. The UK is far less supplied with storage facilities than the US, so it’s a growth market. The company’s strong balance sheet and attractive valuation makes it a compelling income opportunity.

Which holdings helped most and were there any that held back performance?

NatWest, M&G, and BAE Systems were some of the main contributors. BAE, in particular, benefited from increased global defence spending and has well-established positions in the US, Europe and Asia.

On the negative side, not holding Rolls-Royce, which rose sharply but offers a low dividend yield, detracted from relative performance. Some pharmaceuticals holdings had more mixed results, not holding the overseas bank, Standard Chartered, also held back returns.

You’ve gradually reduced overseas exposure. How is the portfolio positioned today and what role do non-UK holdings play?

Today, the trust is mostly invested in big, well-established UK companies. In fact, about 83% of our investments are in companies that are part of the FTSE 100, which is an index of the 100 largest firms listed on the London Stock Exchange (think of names like HSBC or Unilever). We also invest around 10% in UK mid-cap companies, which are medium-sized businesses with strong growth potential. The remaining 7% of the portfolio is in overseas-listed companies.

A few years ago, we had more invested overseas – about 17%. But as market conditions have shifted, we’ve seen much more value in UK companies. In areas like oil and consumer staples UK companies are currently trading at lower prices compared to similar firms in the US and Europe. This gives UK stocks an edge in terms of value for investors right now, so we’ve deliberately increased our UK exposure to take advantage of these opportunities.

That said, our overseas investments still play an important role. They help diversify the portfolio, especially in areas where the UK market isn’t as strong. For instance, TotalEnergies complements our UK energy holdings, while Merck, Johnson & Johnson, and Novartis add global expertise in pharmaceuticals. Munich Re boosts our exposure to the reinsurance sector, and Swire Pacific in Hong Kong gives us access to high-quality assets in Asia.

These international positions work alongside our core holdings in UK companies, helping create a balanced and resilient portfolio.

Investors are still navigating inflation, interest rates and political uncertainty. What’s your outlook for the UK market?

The UK market remains attractively valued – particularly when you consider income. The market dividend yield is around 3.3%, and share buybacks add roughly another 2%, giving investors a total distribution yield of over 5%. This is higher than in the US and in my view means that you’re being “paid to wait.”

UK companies also earn a large proportion of their revenues overseas, so domestic uncertainty shouldn’t be overstated. Meanwhile, we expect ongoing takeovers and share buybacks to help support valuations.

What are your priorities for the year ahead?

Our focus remains unchanged: grow the trust’s net asset value and continue delivering rising income, while keeping risk controlled. That means holding high-quality companies at sensible valuations, avoiding structurally challenged areas, and acting decisively when market conditions change. City of London has built a strong long-term record and maintaining that is central to how we manage the portfolio.

Discrete performance

Discrete year performance (%) Share price (total return) NAV (total return)
30/09/2024 to 30/09/2025 20.73 18.70
30/09/2023 to 30/09/2024 16.63 16.53
30/09/2022 to 30/09/2023 10.73 12.31
30/09/2021 to 30/09/2022 2.21 1.20
30/09/2020 to 30/09/2021 29.14 26.61

All performance, cumulative growth and annual growth data is sourced from Morningstar.

Source: at 30/09/25. © 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance does not predict future returns.

Glossary:

Balance sheet

A financial statement that summarises a company’s assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity at a particular point in time. Each segment gives investors an idea as to what the company owns and owes, as well as the amount invested by shareholders. It is called a balance sheet because of the accounting equation: assets = liabilities + shareholders’ equity.

 

Dividend

A variable discretionary payment made by a company to its shareholders.

 

Distribution yield

The income received on an investment relative to its price, expressed as a percentage. It enables comparisons of the level of income provided by different investments such as equities, bonds, cash, property, or between funds at a point in time.

 

Earnings per share (EPS)

EPS is the bottom-line measure of a company’s profitability, defined as net income (profit after tax) divided by the number of outstanding shares.

 

Equity

A security representing ownership, typically listed on a stock exchange. ‘Equities’ as an asset class means investments in shares, as opposed to, for instance, bond. To have ‘equity’ in a company means to hold shares in that company and therefore have part ownership.

 

FTSE 100

The index tracks the 100 largest public companies by market cap on the London Stock Exchange.

 

Inflation

The rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising in an economy. The consumer price index (CPI) and retail price index (RPI) are two common measures; the opposite of deflation.

 

Interest rates

The amount charged for borrowing money, shown as a percentage of the amount owed. Base interest rates (the Bank Rate) are generally set by central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the US or Bank of England in the UK, and influence the interest rates that lenders charge to access their own lending or saving.

 

Mid caps

Companies with a valuation (market capitalisation) within a certain scale (e.g., $2 – 10 billion in the US), although these measures are generally an estimate. Mid-cap indices, such as the S&P MidCap 400 in the US, track the performance of these mid-sized, publicly-traded companies. Mid-cap stocks are generally perceived to offer better growth potential than their larger peers, but with some additional risk.

 

NAV total return (investment trusts)

The theoretical total return on shareholders’ funds per share reflecting the change in NAV assuming that dividends paid to shareholders were reinvested at NAV at the time the shares were quoted ex-dividend. A way of measuring investment management performance of investment trusts which is not affected by movements in discounts/premiums.

 

Portfolio

A grouping of financial assets such as equities, bonds, commodities, properties, or cash. Also often called a ‘fund’.

 

Real estate investment trust (REITs)

An investment vehicle that invests in real estate through direct ownership of property assets, property shares, or mortgages. As they are listed on a stock exchange, REITs are usually highly-liquid and trade like shares. Real estate securities, including REITs, may be subject to additional risks including interest-rate, management, tax, economic, environmental, and concentration risks.

 

Share buybacks

Where a company buys back their own shares from the market, thereby reducing the number of shares in circulation, with a consequent increase in the value of each remaining share. It increases the stake that existing shareholders have in the company, including the amount due from any future dividend payments. It typically signals the company’s optimism about the future and a possible undervaluation of the company’s equity.

 

Share price

The price to purchase (or sell) one share in a company, not including fees or taxes. For investment trusts: The closing mid-market share price at month end.

 

Valuation metrics

Metrics used to gauge a company’s performance, financial health, and expectations for future earnings, e.g. P/E ratio and ROE.

 

Yield

The level of income on a security over a set period, typically expressed as a percentage rate. For equities, a common measure is the dividend yield, which divides recent dividend payments for each share by the share price. For a bond, this is calculated as the coupon payment divided by the current bond price. For investment trusts: Calculated by dividing the current financial year’s dividends per share (this will include prospective dividends) by the current price per share, then multiplying by 100 to arrive at a percentage figure.

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Important information

Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.

Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved, you may wish to consult a financial adviser. This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the AIFMD Disclosure document and Annual Report of the AIF before making any final investment decisions.
    Specific risks
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